TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Ilinca Amariei vs. Elsa Jacquemot: Total Sets O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Under 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$39,719
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,411

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,719 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x38f5…6824backed Over 2.51c6,608$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.0860%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x532b…dd2dbacked Over 2.54c3,267$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.52333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-49.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Over 2.51c3,000$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2814343.4%62 W · 81 L-14.5wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-31.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x15ac…f3babacked Over 2.52c1,800$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1ff…5b03backed Over 2.51c1,600$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e69…7f76backed Over 2.51c1,200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-47.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99d1…ee7abacked Over 2.52c999.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-47.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5116…83adbacked Over 2.565c174.85$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.652965.5%19 W · 10 L+4.7wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+32.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed Under 2.535c174.85$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.654652.2%24 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x167a…d542backed Under 2.543c116$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.121,80258.9%1,062 W · 740 L+5.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over 2.557c114.11$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.049,23144.3%4,088 W · 5,143 L-241.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under 2.568c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322,39950.6%1,215 W · 1,184 L+76.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82b0…7c38backed Over 2.532c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3235955.7%200 W · 159 L+20.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under 2.548c84.77$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.084,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Over 2.552c76$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5233350.2%167 W · 166 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x205d…2ad2backed Under 2.572c38.58$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.822366.8%149 W · 74 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over 2.528c38.58$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.87,10049.7%3,530 W · 3,570 L+107.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.