TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Cricket · resolved market

Pakistan Super League: Lahore Qalandars vs Karachi Kings

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Karachi Kingsof Lahore Qalandars, Karachi Kings
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Cricketevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$209,100
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$234,695

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $209,100 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 177 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Cricket is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Cricket
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x10ff…5088backed Lahore Qalandars71c15,427$10,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,889.231543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69ad…31e6backed Karachi Kings61c11,648$7,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,498.5812158.7%71 W · 50 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Lahore Qalandars53c11,317$6,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,043.4229631.1%92 W · 204 L-16.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-43.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfea8…47aabacked Karachi Kings46c11,236$5,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,072.8921540.9%88 W · 127 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea48…f0ffbacked Lahore Qalandars80c6,546$5,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,230.887447.3%35 W · 39 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Lahore Qalandars61c5,844$3,543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,543.4250547.5%240 W · 265 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-16.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4b7…6008backed Karachi Kings40c5,106$2,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,046.3733340.2%134 W · 199 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01af…7bc2backed Karachi Kings76c4,808$3,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,147.254544.4%20 W · 25 L-4.2wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-30.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8504…88dcbacked Karachi Kings49c4,594$2,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,357.692955.2%16 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fa3…ab9cbacked Lahore Qalandars62c3,954$2,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,442.673844.7%17 W · 21 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-17.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Karachi Kings43c3,584$1,534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,050.1910346.6%48 W · 55 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Lahore Qalandars58c2,189$1,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,264.5218541.6%77 W · 108 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Lahore Qalandars36c2,130$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758.4915935.2%56 W · 103 L-11.9wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-39.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Lahore Qalandars57c1,837$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055.6564143.1%276 W · 365 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Lahore Qalandars45c1,519$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.6819950.8%101 W · 98 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Karachi Kings52c1,500$784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7162839.3%11 W · 17 L-4.5wins-0.16per pick55cpaid-36.8%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Karachi Kings55c1,437$785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652.26947.8%33 W · 36 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8b0…9f87backed Karachi Kings39c1,358$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$826.3414730.6%45 W · 102 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb42…76a5backed Karachi Kings45c1,333$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$732.5312357.7%71 W · 52 L+11.4wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+8.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Karachi Kings38c1,206$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751.134360.5%26 W · 17 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+22.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0c87…98b1backed Lahore Qalandars2c1,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510711.2%12 W · 95 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f9d…ab79backed Karachi Kings28c952.74$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.256132.8%20 W · 41 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-18.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee2f…530cbacked Lahore Qalandars2c951.08$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d99…9675backed Karachi Kings31c899.75$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.087131%22 W · 49 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+25.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82e5…7e2fbacked Lahore Qalandars74c865.32$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.344468.2%30 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick64cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Karachi Kings39c838.1$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.756937.1%211 W · 358 L-2.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Lahore Qalandars62c818$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.7243840.9%179 W · 259 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Lahore Qalandars32c706.81$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.587433.8%25 W · 49 L-6.1wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-43.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Karachi Kings38c621.8$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.5228749.5%142 W · 145 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Karachi Kings42c602.95$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.8811153.2%59 W · 52 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e02…d70abacked Lahore Qalandars62c555.05$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.3636445.6%166 W · 198 L+11.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed Lahore Qalandars57c526.27$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.974839.6%19 W · 29 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Lahore Qalandars42c489.25$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.215731.6%18 W · 39 L-5.6wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-47.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb6ed…5dc7backed Karachi Kings39c481.7$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.84475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+61.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5471…a236backed Karachi Kings36c465.48$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.614535.6%16 W · 29 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-37.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x094a…e4a9backed Karachi Kings39c438$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.182638.5%10 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…ea3bbacked Lahore Qalandars54c407$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.784117.1%7 W · 34 L-6.7wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-64.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa141…6744backed Karachi Kings47c387$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.014425%11 W · 33 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-39.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1645…5838backed Lahore Qalandars64c381.41$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.674344.2%19 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7090…a5ffbacked Karachi Kings41c351.43$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.3521439.7%85 W · 129 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e7f…cdffbacked Karachi Kings30c330$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2316048.3%29 W · 31 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Karachi Kings33c321$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.6511841.5%49 W · 69 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-17.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Karachi Kings41c312.08$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.921643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52c1…d61fbacked Karachi Kings32c301.28$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.376947.8%33 W · 36 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Karachi Kings38c300.65$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.45457.4%31 W · 23 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3052…ca02backed Lahore Qalandars60c300$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18010734.6%37 W · 70 L-9.5wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-25.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9958…b9acbacked Karachi Kings56c297.98$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.1111659.5%69 W · 47 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed Karachi Kings41c291.94$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.015651.8%29 W · 27 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5887…994ebacked Karachi Kings43c285.04$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.121936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-32.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Lahore Qalandars64c278.94$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.8618642.5%79 W · 107 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf3c…bec3backed Karachi Kings28c270.41$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.085236.5%19 W · 33 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x171d…49a8backed Lahore Qalandars58c252.1$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.223033.3%10 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-37%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda3e…b338backed Lahore Qalandars69c245$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.051855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Lahore Qalandars30c229.27$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.6641947.5%199 W · 220 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ea…9496backed Karachi Kings43c226.96$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.377665.8%50 W · 26 L+7.4wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d3e…986cbacked Lahore Qalandars46c208.81$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.057445.9%34 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2294…4cd3backed Karachi Kings38c201.77$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.5667931.4%213 W · 466 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Lahore Qalandars57c200.77$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.179852%51 W · 47 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5025…8aaabacked Karachi Kings49c197.84$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.94450%22 W · 22 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x22f3…6c94backed Karachi Kings37c196.42$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.1536047.5%171 W · 189 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7714…1481backed Lahore Qalandars50c195.35$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.983046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5616…64cdbacked Karachi Kings50c194$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$977454.1%40 W · 34 L+10.4wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+26.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3a6f…0c8bbacked Karachi Kings25c191$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.25714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked Karachi Kings40c186$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.993951.3%20 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad0f…e828backed Lahore Qalandars54c185.35$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.82638.5%10 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-24.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6268…e9a9backed Karachi Kings25c185.04$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.781457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick38cpaid+45.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaf58…6c4dbacked Karachi Kings24c180.89$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.952748.1%13 W · 14 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick32cpaid+18.5%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x935e…d6e4backed Lahore Qalandars74c175.74$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.393250%16 W · 16 L-6.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-27.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Lahore Qalandars62c173.47$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.7342344.2%187 W · 236 L+0.8wins0.00per pick44cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9dd…ca07backed Karachi Kings37c170.16$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.7614343.4%62 W · 81 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8417…8a39backed Karachi Kings23c165.29$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.3919427.3%53 W · 141 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e56…d55ebacked Lahore Qalandars44c160$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.74333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9c7…007dbacked Karachi Kings41c150.02$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.69149.5%45 W · 46 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-24.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bf2…3932backed Lahore Qalandars57c148.41$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.59560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+46.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Karachi Kings57c145.95$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.1776351.6%394 W · 369 L+29.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Lahore Qalandars65c144.89$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.5131050%155 W · 155 L+11.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf61c…9ad2backed Karachi Kings51c141.38$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.91366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+22%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c52…ad79backed Lahore Qalandars79c135.7$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.21764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Karachi Kings32c132.6$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.943638.9%14 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e04…57c7backed Lahore Qalandars13c124.51$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.472532%8 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fee…850abacked Lahore Qalandars80c123.5$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.82272.7%16 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick70cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda85…bd68backed Karachi Kings42c123.12$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.351060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d20…9c8cbacked Karachi Kings29c113.77$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.771650%8 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+82%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x736b…8da6backed Karachi Kings46c110$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.46471.9%46 W · 18 L+9.4wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+25.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6e49…f1afbacked Karachi Kings41c109.47$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+141.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb4a…9d39backed Lahore Qalandars60c107.8$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.4214141.8%59 W · 82 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x82e7…c61cbacked Lahore Qalandars77c102.39$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9119265.6%126 W · 66 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x677e…5072backed Karachi Kings48c100.92$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.4819956.3%112 W · 87 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67ed…687ebacked Karachi Kings32c100$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c0f…b0ecbacked Karachi Kings28c100$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7212141.3%50 W · 71 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa94d…9521backed Lahore Qalandars35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+22%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a57…913fbacked Lahore Qalandars55c99.98$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1929051.7%150 W · 140 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a4…92a8backed Lahore Qalandars80c99.95$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.961435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Karachi Kings50c99.56$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.39250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Karachi Kings48c98.9$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.435261.5%32 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x83e4…757dbacked Lahore Qalandars45c96.7$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.522227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b8f…2c14backed Karachi Kings34c95.98$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.351435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x386e…16b0backed Lahore Qalandars21c95.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.14333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-47.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee6d…0c24backed Karachi Kings31c95.85$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.2721035.7%75 W · 135 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c68…75bcbacked Karachi Kings55c95.54$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.392352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Cricket and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.