World Politics · resolved market
Will Count Binface win 30–40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bac2275c9adc63db392b57aaa48d626dc5d697f5aa1dac099f00b1fc40efb53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,298
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,296
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,298 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe3f2…e1c1backed Yes | 6c | 9,654$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 6c | 8,411$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.97 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 6c | 7,325$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.84 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes | 6c | 5,805$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…e7a2backed Yes | 7c | 5,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc19e…d881backed Yes | 2c | 4,777$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked Yes | 9c | 3,769$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.36 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed Yes | 6c | 2,386$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.17 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…22b0backed Yes | 6c | 1,738$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2a…b7b5backed Yes | 5c | 1,556$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.74 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 4c | 1,531$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -56%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…9b13backed Yes | 13c | 1,320$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.9 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 1,250$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.52 | 167 | 6.6%11 W · 156 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5efb…55a1backed Yes | 8c | 1,200$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d01…1645backed Yes | 8c | 1,109$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.83 | 120 | 29.2%35 W · 85 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 14c | 928.57$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 3c | 866.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 11c | 857$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.27 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…65abbacked Yes | 2c | 750$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…c773backed Yes | 10c | 668.94$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.43 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94d9…bc47backed Yes | 11c | 622.95$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes | 6c | 526.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 110 | 17.3%19 W · 91 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed Yes | 3c | 520.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2956…d31bbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x974a…8efdbacked Yes | 12c | 456.35$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2564…f258backed Yes | 5c | 411.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8359…9b35backed Yes | 5c | 405.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 6c | 387.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2a…f17cbacked Yes | 8c | 356.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 7c | 339.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…66ddbacked Yes | 8c | 330.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 326.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ee…008cbacked Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 13c | 287$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x929a…5ab4backed Yes | 11c | 213.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 6c | 208.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…4cd3backed Yes | 8c | 195$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 13cpaid | +365.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed Yes | 6c | 189.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed Yes | 11c | 187.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 10c | 170.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f2…507fbacked Yes | 8c | 165$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 8c | 128.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 141 | 26.2%37 W · 104 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4438…f659backed Yes | 13c | 128.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 12c | 107.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x686d…1a68backed Yes | 12c | 102.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd260…5d77backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e71…7913backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcafb…02f5backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 76c | 14.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 125 | 56.8%71 W · 54 L | +12.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Count Binface win 30–40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?this page
- Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?No won
- Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Yes won
- Will Count Binface win at least 40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?No won
- Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.