Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 48°F or higher on March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa4f22bfc4b6518e62397e69aa454e3281c018a80af6f342507037ccd0f917ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $275,834
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $275,834 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 293 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x258b…d9bcbacked No | 0c | 82,036$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf71…b1d2backed No | 1c | 15,904$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.34 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked No | 4c | 10,258$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.09 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 5c | 5,640$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.35 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 4c | 5,077$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.79 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf78d…6fb5backed Yes | 78c | 4,856$3,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.84 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +3.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x65ab…0a76backed No | 3c | 4,677$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 2c | 3,712$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0a…8c6cbacked No | 4c | 2,471$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04db…f0fdbacked No | 1c | 2,310$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8888…0b39backed Yes | 32c | 2,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,360 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 50c | 1,944$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.88 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf84d…5e65backed No | 74c | 1,897$1,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,412 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 53c | 1,851$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.8 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed No | 11c | 1,841$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.65 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 31c | 1,431$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.5 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 12c | 1,390$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.25 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 48c | 1,387$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.36 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…0998backed No | 2c | 1,320$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 7c | 1,317$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.88 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 50c | 1,278$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.16 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed Yes | 48c | 1,255$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.24 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 51c | 917.35$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.54 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 27c | 892.88$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.69 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 11c | 793.88$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.31 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 61c | 788.13$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.82 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9091…f710backed No | 18c | 750.26$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.85 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -90.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 36c | 736.74$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.49 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb5…7bf7backed Yes | 67c | 657.69$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.61 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 62c | 638.9$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.21 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92d…bffcbacked Yes | 74c | 582.49$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.49 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2aa…586fbacked No | 55c | 573.98$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.49 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78c3…7003backed No | 29c | 567.38$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.91 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 45c | 558.92$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.75 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…4bc2backed No | 38c | 551.81$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.06 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 63c | 533.67$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6f…577ebacked Yes | 49c | 532.9$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.23 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 17c | 492.31$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.33 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 24c | 451.85$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.78 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bda…7258backed No | 3c | 445.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked No | 31c | 439.9$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.55 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9f…d10fbacked Yes | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe287…5a0fbacked No | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2512…9030backed No | 5c | 378.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 37c | 370.52$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.41 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…7291backed Yes | 67c | 351$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.16 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…9144backed No | 3c | 343.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 46c | 332.95$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.6 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed No | 44c | 330.81$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.82 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 38c | 316.28$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.94 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef81…6d75backed Yes | 66c | 301.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.33 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.98 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 63c | 299.67$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.3 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 29c | 297.38$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.82 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 35c | 292.52$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.13 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…0d2abacked Yes | 60c | 291.21$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.28 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 47c | 277.81$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.97 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc99f…aeb1backed Yes | 29c | 277.34$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.12 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -74%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 49c | 267.8$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.88 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44c4…e3bfbacked Yes | 63c | 262.86$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.55 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b81abacked Yes | 50c | 256.68$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.38 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 37c | 246.26$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.96 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x615b…2ba8backed Yes | 61c | 230$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.8 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed Yes | 76c | 228.35$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.86 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 33c | 224.3$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.64 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 38c | 218.75$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.67 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 43c | 206.14$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.61 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0b57…52c4backed Yes | 57c | 205.18$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.11 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 11c | 205$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.9 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.84 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xace5…4457backed Yes | 64c | 198.31$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 42c | 196$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.32 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed No | 38c | 191.05$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.66 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d32…939bbacked No | 72c | 190$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 43c | 189.98$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.39 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaffc…ce04backed Yes | 7c | 187.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.38 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed No | 41c | 184.88$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf34…6635backed Yes | 59c | 169.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71d…fbdebacked Yes | 62c | 168.98$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.72 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 11c | 168.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 62c | 163.92$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.89 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc66…20d8backed Yes | 64c | 151.6$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 72c | 150$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…9410backed No | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 65c | 149$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.7 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35a…e615backed No | 16c | 147.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -46%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b4…85f7backed No | 37c | 146.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea89…26abbacked Yes | 45c | 145$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.75 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3961backed Yes | 53c | 142.87$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.57 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 65c | 138.78$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.43 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b7…9cfabacked No | 36c | 137.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d4…f7dcbacked Yes | 46c | 136.32$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.15 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…d125backed Yes | 39c | 135.89$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.43 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 75c | 135.72$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf87…1949backed Yes | 70c | 132.56$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…0a73backed Yes | 47c | 132.02$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.19 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfea…8006backed Yes | 57c | 129.56$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 53c | 129.37$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…5c87backed Yes | 64c | 128.69$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.59 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 48°F or higher on March 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.