Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7bf0f03d8e74ca06ad39f5c30f86aeb47e893b82e1d443fbb9c586fcf970eb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $243,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $243,328 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 210 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d70…72eebacked Yes | 1c | 46,891$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf71…b1d2backed Yes | 1c | 19,193$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 3c | 18,663$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.27 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x258b…d9bcbacked Yes | 0c | 11,936$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 1c | 7,736$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.32 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf78d…6fb5backed No | 80c | 7,500$5,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,525 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +3.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 4c | 5,223$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.97 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e9…90bfbacked Yes | 26c | 4,190$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,089.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 25c | 4,124$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040.3 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65ab…0a76backed Yes | 2c | 3,799$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed No | 38c | 3,019$1,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,870.47 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed Yes | 1c | 2,248$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04db…f0fdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,099$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,913$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.05 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,825$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.86 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 12c | 1,788$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.24 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 36c | 1,727$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.02 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9091…f710backed Yes | 15c | 1,693$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.69 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -90.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed Yes | 1c | 1,666$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…83ccbacked Yes | 1c | 1,538$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 55 | 0%0 W · 55 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeff8…95c3backed No | 74c | 1,420$1,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…22e4backed No | 74c | 1,400$1,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 10c | 1,380$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.08 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf84d…5e65backed Yes | 20c | 1,373$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.37 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea55…5f69backed No | 74c | 1,370$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 39c | 1,107$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.23 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85a2…0478backed Yes | 1c | 1,104$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b30…d326backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 61c | 928.95$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.29 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 44c | 916.83$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.35 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 12c | 824.06$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.83 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 23c | 802.57$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.68 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 22c | 787.47$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.61 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 25c | 615.39$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.96 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…21f4backed Yes | 76c | 570.41$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.15 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 10c | 544.33$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.13 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66aa…5203backed Yes | 63c | 508.95$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.87 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 35c | 506.22$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.85 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7acf…f67bbacked No | 52c | 472.14$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 77c | 460.57$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.1 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 20c | 451.34$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.35 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xace5…4457backed Yes | 23c | 426.4$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.24 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed No | 80c | 400.6$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.32 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 55c | 380.63$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.5 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 17c | 356.58$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.7 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes | 67c | 353.1$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.13 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 17c | 328.95$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.42 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…d125backed Yes | 62c | 322.32$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.75 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4581…91f9backed No | 24c | 303$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.28 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 25c | 297.35$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.85 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 296.89$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.78 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…8d8fbacked Yes | 61c | 286.93$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 78c | 272.49$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.85 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a3…fa3cbacked Yes | 79c | 271.41$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.1 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5c…cdf7backed No | 14c | 271.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b57…52c4backed Yes | 37c | 265$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.29 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb5…7bf7backed Yes | 9c | 257.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 41c | 240$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.72 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed Yes | 42c | 238.35$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.12 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 40c | 236.89$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.8 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 52c | 236.53$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.21 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 39c | 232.93$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.25 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2e…104fbacked Yes | 11c | 229.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd64…877cbacked Yes | 48c | 219.76$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 66c | 197.11$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.09 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8334…9210backed Yes | 61c | 195.49$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 28c | 193.37$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.93 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 187.71$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfe28…43b1backed No | 80c | 187.23$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 182.2$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71d…fbdebacked Yes | 57c | 169.55$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.64 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 24c | 168.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 44c | 167.43$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.58 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 29c | 167.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 65c | 166.24$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.48 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 25c | 163.18$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.39 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1c…3853backed Yes | 31c | 161.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d4…f7dcbacked Yes | 60c | 160.27$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.83 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed Yes | 10c | 157.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 26c | 150.76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2aa…586fbacked Yes | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 11c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 17c | 149.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7027…b22dbacked Yes | 24c | 149.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 42c | 144.81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.12 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 25c | 139.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3961backed Yes | 29c | 137.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…0998backed No | 80c | 137.76$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 60c | 135.78$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.14 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 17c | 131.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…5c87backed Yes | 19c | 129.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcb…e0f9backed Yes | 72c | 125.38$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.74 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 21c | 124$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…b75bbacked Yes | 22c | 122.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd8…5d8bbacked Yes | 78c | 122.09$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…f630backed Yes | 22c | 121.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 40c | 118.55$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.59 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 48°F or higher on March 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.