TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$145,887
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$151,059

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,887 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd218…b5c9backed Under11c48,293$5,180 inLost-$5,180.254,02738.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L-26.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14b9…f378backed Under10c43,984$4,397 inLost-$4,397.486929%20 W · 49 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under8c6,166$491 inLost-$491.083,99224.9%994 W · 2,998 L-47.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under7c3,117$218 inLost-$218.21,94135.5%690 W · 1,251 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34a1…7622backed Under7c2,875$190 inLost-$19030626.5%81 W · 225 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick29cpaid+1.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Under11c1,367$145 inLost-$144.561,68620.6%347 W · 1,339 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d7a…751abacked Under9c980.77$88 inLost-$88.2773234.6%253 W · 479 L-22.2wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Under9c909.5$82 inLost-$82.152,62641.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L-11.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under8c852.15$67 inLost-$67.432,81944.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L-36.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under10c710.54$71 inLost-$70.932,79346.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L-10.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41a0…87e7backed Under5c700.8$35 inLost-$35333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-53.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d1d…01acbacked Under10c614.65$61 inLost-$61.2624541.2%101 W · 144 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Under10c466.9$44 inLost-$44.421,06749.1%524 W · 543 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7db…6688backed Under8c258.96$19 inLost-$19.516740.7%68 W · 99 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ff…5b03backed Under6c184.75$12 inLost-$122313%3 W · 20 L-4.3wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-77.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed Under9c175.3$16 inLost-$15.781,13540.2%456 W · 679 L+5.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Under10c127.28$13 inLost-$12.622,32718.1%422 W · 1,905 L-363.0wins-0.16per pick34cpaid-63.5%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.