Fifa International · resolved market
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4204c5a9625dc83599654eeeebd6492cc8bd2c52a5e31e69227563e3dcf8d593
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $187,291
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $157,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $187,291 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 3c | 12,280$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.01 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…d3abbacked Over | 2c | 10,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 285 | 26.3%75 W · 210 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…6ad4backed Over | 2c | 10,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Over | 2c | 10,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +220.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked Over | 2c | 6,411$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.12 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edd…74d2backed Over | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…593dbacked Over | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 123 | 29.3%36 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Over | 4c | 4,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 213 | 14.1%30 W · 183 L | +14.3wins | +0.07per pick | 7cpaid | +135.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…e900backed Over | 2c | 3,500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 364 | 37.1%135 W · 229 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22d7…761dbacked Over | 0c | 3,457$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4457…f3e2backed Over | 2c | 3,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 142 | 31%44 W · 98 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 3c | 2,988$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.82 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb5…6fe9backed Over | 2c | 2,795$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.91 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a60…7b81backed Over | 2c | 2,632$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4536…afbbbacked Over | 2c | 2,596$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 18cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x786d…b89bbacked Over | 2c | 2,587$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 522 | 17.4%91 W · 431 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 2c | 2,488$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.05 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e66…d50fbacked Over | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a0…86b2backed Over | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked Over | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 152 | 25.7%39 W · 113 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8193…8c82backed Over | 2c | 1,800$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd582…4561backed Over | 2c | 1,752$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe708…c3aabacked Over | 5c | 1,699$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.95 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a36…2450backed Over | 2c | 1,556$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 6c | 1,530$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.9 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | +8.7wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde2f…da40backed Over | 2c | 1,526$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc6b…8115backed Over | 2c | 1,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 229 | 14%32 W · 197 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1326…fdffbacked Over | 2c | 1,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 189 | 36%68 W · 121 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4442…4aedbacked Over | 2c | 1,363$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13d…11aabacked Over | 1c | 1,074$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d64…0b24backed Over | 2c | 1,053$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eaf…af7bbacked Over | 2c | 1,028$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3a…65c8backed Over | 2c | 1,021$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 20cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd385…ab9cbacked Over | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc0…7faabacked Over | 2c | 1,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -48%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Over | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 295 | 29.8%88 W · 207 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb42b…afe0backed Over | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…6207backed Over | 2c | 929.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 2c | 909.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 1,686 | 20.6%347 W · 1,339 L | -28.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cd…0052backed Over | 2c | 750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…9118backed Over | 3c | 750$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d29…8bb4backed Over | 2c | 624.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8557…66f6backed Over | 2c | 610.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…e1c3backed Over | 2c | 526.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…7b3fbacked Over | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 150 | 46.7%70 W · 80 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…3366backed Over | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe32d…1d8abacked Over | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 18c | 263.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 384 | 37%142 W · 242 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x630d…875abacked Over | 25c | 120.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5this page
- Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5Over won
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5Under won
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5Under won
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 2nd Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 0.5Over won
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5Over won
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5Over won
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5Over won
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5Over won
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5Over won
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5Over won
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5Over won
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5Over won
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5Over won
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5Over won
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5Over won
- Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Curaçao (-1.5)Germany won
- Spread: Curaçao (-2.5)Germany won
- Spread: Germany (-1.5)Germany won
- Spread: Germany (-2.5)Germany won
- Spread: Germany (-3.5)Germany won
- Spread: Germany (-4.5)Germany won
- Spread: Germany (-5.5)Germany won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.