TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$172,202
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$181,306

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $172,202 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under6c38,880$2,409 inLost-$2,408.944,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under3c18,718$493 inLost-$493.0316116.1%26 W · 135 L-0.3wins0.00per pick16cpaid+52.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Under6c17,503$975 inLost-$975.1620724.6%51 W · 156 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9c…8620backed Under2c13,014$231 inLost-$230.6633740.4%136 W · 201 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-24.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under6c4,818$279 inLost-$279.41,56043.8%684 W · 876 L-4.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Under6c3,929$236 inLost-$235.7371638.4%275 W · 441 L+8.7wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec56…1816backed Under8c3,678$291 inLost-$290.7184738.8%329 W · 518 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under6c2,866$172 inLost-$171.963,99224.9%994 W · 2,998 L-47.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f67…a203backed Under3c1,887$57 inLost-$56.6215937.7%60 W · 99 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Under6c1,589$95 inLost-$95.371,04529.3%306 W · 739 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x635d…7047backed Under5c1,356$68 inLost-$67.781756.9%12 W · 163 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+112.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c66…e371backed Under6c1,161$70 inLost-$69.6984751%432 W · 415 L+10.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e7a…28e3backed Under7c1,143$80 inLost-$803125.8%8 W · 23 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick18cpaid+55.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under6c1,028$62 inLost-$61.6748152.4%252 W · 229 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63ad…8089backed Under5c929.58$46 inLost-$46.48214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick8cpaid+185.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1318…96c9backed Under6c833.33$50 inLost-$502532%8 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-19.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d7a…751abacked Under6c663.03$40 inLost-$39.7873234.6%253 W · 479 L-22.2wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under5c509.6$25 inLost-$25.484,45737.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L+31.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed Under6c504.99$31 inLost-$31.11,13540.2%456 W · 679 L+5.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Under6c481.92$29 inLost-$28.921,68620.6%347 W · 1,339 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04ff…f376backed Under7c357.14$25 inLost-$25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under6c342.93$21 inLost-$20.581,94135.5%690 W · 1,251 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under6c320.95$18 inLost-$18.413,21347.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35d3…e506backed Under7c285.71$20 inLost-$2020626.2%54 W · 152 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Under6c278.89$17 inLost-$16.731,04443.7%456 W · 588 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39b2…9460backed Under8c255.23$20 inLost-$2035619.4%69 W · 287 L-21.4wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-27.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe692…05e8backed Under7c242.86$17 inLost-$178225.6%21 W · 61 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Under6c216.58$12 inLost-$12.191,94542.7%831 W · 1,114 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4108…a80dbacked Under6c200$12 inLost-$1232317.6%57 W · 266 L-43.8wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-47.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x13d0…5da3backed Under34c68.29$23 inLost-$23.3280%0 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd443…5f71backed Over74c39$29 inWon+$10.1437950.1%190 W · 189 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Over55c29.29$16 inWon+$13.186144.3%27 W · 34 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+4.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.