Chess · resolved market
Will Denis Lazavik Win EWC 2026 Chess?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x925794dc1bc8990b3193d64ea078012583c1fd702beb120deb84e72e6d6104e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,159
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,159 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed Yes | 12c | 1,182$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +287.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…daa5backed Yes | 20c | 799.99$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ec…9996backed Yes | 20c | 688.41$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b6…c061backed Yes | 10c | 498.54$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked Yes | 20c | 374.32$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebd…21cdbacked Yes | 19c | 365.66$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 20c | 296.49$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5141…7346backed Yes | 18c | 249.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…59c6backed Yes | 5c | 247.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 79c | 163$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.94 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +325.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x606e…1fa6backed Yes | 11c | 133.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…440abacked No | 78c | 127.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe515…3e99backed Yes | 18c | 111.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Yes | 15c | 109.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf866…00d3backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 16.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 74cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 79c | 15.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 80c | 13.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Denis Lazavik Win EWC 2026 Chess?this page
- Will Alireza Firouzja Win EWC 2026 Chess?No won
- Will Arjun Erigaisi Win EWC 2026 Chess?No won
- Will Hikaru Nakamura Win EWC 2026 Chess?No won
- Will Magnus Carlsen Win EWC 2026 Chess?Yes won
- Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov Win EWC 2026 Chess?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.