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Chess · resolved market

Will Magnus Carlsen Win EWC 2026 Chess?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,676
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,510

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,676 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Chess
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7495…7fcfbacked No2c1,200$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.28214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-81.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65b8…3c05backed Yes64c782.22$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4afb…ed2bbacked No36c744.17$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked No28c720.56$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ae…93ecbacked Yes58c534.07$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.821540%6 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No23c527.51$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.54850%4 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-33.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x580b…72a3backed Yes60c485.91$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32bf…ec60backed No42c474.35$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No27c436.48$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.37666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No19c432.73$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.22250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No17c400.52$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.04333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-56.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No20c370.82$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.6837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-49%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9320…f7d7backed Yes58c369.99$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a49…737abacked Yes64c317.17$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.17250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No10c270$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.71250%6 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62ec…d19ebacked No17c249.98$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48d9…2a28backed No42c249.29$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.633327.3%9 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3642…757dbacked Yes74c240$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4708…9580backed No20c229.13$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9330%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7d5…0789backed No23c221.47$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.17714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-80.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8958…656dbacked No22c215$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked No49c180$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.47425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-61.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No36c164.1$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.46366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38f5…6824backed No21c156.29$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No17c156$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.731154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No22c150.19$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.881421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-51.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2ca…f587backed Yes66c149.24$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No18c141.67$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.63966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92a7…eb78backed No9c140$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9129…dd8ebacked No20c136$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa42f…65f5backed No38c126.75$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2673…5ac9backed No45c112$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3613…59c6backed No24c110.49$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26248.3%2 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-72.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x29a6…699dbacked Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522958.6%17 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick64cpaid+57.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1a0…c18cbacked No11c94.58$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.086555.4%36 W · 29 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbed…a665backed No15c94$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e17…12babacked Yes66c87.24$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No26c83.6$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.58633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-46.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x880c…440abacked No35c76.05$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3611539.1%45 W · 70 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2f2…d1f0backed No15c71.82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb9d…6577backed No28c70$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.390%0 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf404…daaabacked No36c67.81$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No38c67.24$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.66425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-65%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No20c64.92$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.69966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c4a…db2bbacked Yes76c61$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.662100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf15…91c5backed No43c60$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8373…f0bcbacked No25c57.55$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No23c57.12$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.06250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf958…db13backed Yes53c55$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x679c…becebacked Yes58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbc…3335backed No41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No39c48.52$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No40c47$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No26c45$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.532445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc58b…8e28backed Yes58c43.1$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe52d…b4dbbacked No41c41.51$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca98…74b8backed Yes62c40.61$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe17b…1068backed Yes61c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No38c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.14850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83f4…c2a8backed Yes62c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick62cpaid+62.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked No38c38$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4430%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf584…d8dabacked Yes57c37.26$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.02475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+22.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f43…6ae6backed Yes63c36.79$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.61757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No46c35$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.11030%3 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fc6…8477backed Yes59c33.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa0f…ec43backed Yes75c30.7$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.722100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdd0…550abacked Yes58c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+59.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9e3…adb3backed Yes59c29.55$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2249…85cabacked Yes69c27.54$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.54475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+40.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x29ef…dddabacked No39c26$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ac…80c0backed Yes78c25.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bac…07a4backed Yes65c25.31$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x270b…e632backed Yes55c25.05$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc512…7fdfbacked Yes59c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3901…9761backed Yes58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaea0…875abacked Yes66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8875%6 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+140.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa750…0d0fbacked Yes76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.8650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-18.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe23…a8b5backed Yes63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed Yes58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.43100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+47.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe84f…af9cbacked No51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ee8…a005backed Yes61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa522…2c26backed Yes57c19.3$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3008…3c76backed Yes61c17.94$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.