Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-02-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae96f385a505b9408abd6ba30d8a0e0a12e71038b2ccb7ec6ecd6903e7806979
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $149,579
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $162,023
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $149,579 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 0c | 13,852$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 16c | 10,999$1,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,717.09 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe734…8f6abacked Yes | 17c | 10,012$1,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,702.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 18c | 8,361$1,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,505 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…bc51backed Yes | 18c | 6,328$1,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,139 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 18c | 6,234$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.48 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Yes | 17c | 4,593$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.48 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 19c | 3,182$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.36 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…c9aebacked Yes | 17c | 3,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…fdc0backed Yes | 1c | 2,908$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97f9…0aebbacked Yes | 18c | 2,325$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.5 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c6…0691backed Yes | 17c | 2,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…5b78backed Yes | 16c | 1,822$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.77 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 17c | 1,736$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.54 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Yes | 2c | 1,025$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…24cebacked Yes | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa42…2ff3backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Yes | 7c | 861.62$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.62 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Yes | 16c | 752.37$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 3c | 694.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0898…42d5backed Yes | 18c | 560$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 8c | 548$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 5c | 520$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Yes | 19c | 515.79$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 92 | 43.5%40 W · 52 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d9…ab03backed Yes | 3c | 343.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e2…1469backed Yes | 18c | 289.3$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8675…e850backed Yes | 18c | 280.92$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9a…7ef9backed Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…d68ebacked Yes | 18c | 256.04$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb8…c597backed Yes | 16c | 239.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 18c | 220$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64e2…da93backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed Yes | 18c | 186.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 18c | 180.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Yes | 17c | 158.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3053…1662backed Yes | 19c | 155.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 16c | 149.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…0a4abacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Yes | 18c | 108.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…8255backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…9cf5backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 16c | 79.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 16c | 67.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…ba55backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 121 | 65.3%79 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-02-13?this page
- Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw?No won
- Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.