Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-11-08?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x414c3d55da581ba93b3889ab2a4cf9cdeb9d1dcc544be79dcbc751d6cc6c8deb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 70c | 8,864$6,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,619.27 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de9…d669backed Yes | 28c | 5,146$1,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,447.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 72c | 4,968$3,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,395.28 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 73c | 3,810$2,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,018.11 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 29c | 3,500$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.2 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd7e…1d5abacked Yes | 32c | 3,165$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d6b…51dbbacked Yes | 28c | 2,137$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed No | 75c | 1,743$1,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.54 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…f706backed No | 71c | 1,432$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.88 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 28c | 1,311$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 76c | 1,002$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.44 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…a780backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked No | 78c | 888$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.36 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3944…6470backed Yes | 29c | 800$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7111…af35backed Yes | 5c | 664.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 29c | 642.99$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.47 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x723c…01ebbacked Yes | 29c | 642.63$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.54 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff1…1818backed Yes | 18c | 567.08$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57dd…6ab4backed Yes | 28c | 535.71$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed No | 72c | 535.71$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b11…a0f9backed Yes | 29c | 535.21$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef6…f9d4backed Yes | 31c | 532.26$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 79c | 466.36$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.55 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 70c | 346.7$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.01 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67dd…6fcebacked Yes | 29c | 343.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 72c | 341.75$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.03 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…f261backed Yes | 31c | 318.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a0…f967backed Yes | 10c | 203.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 96 | 21.9%21 W · 75 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95a5…4f7cbacked Yes | 29c | 173$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5f…1dc6backed Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa3…64e9backed No | 71c | 172.41$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…a645backed Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee44…0082backed Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd14c…c9f0backed Yes | 30c | 168.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 71c | 140.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked No | 69c | 126.84$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d9…a40ebacked Yes | 28c | 105.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae2…b997backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdec3…ebc5backed Yes | 24c | 88.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 24c | 88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 70c | 84$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Yes | 30c | 82.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d11…0c08backed Yes | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf144…f2bbbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 28c | 66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad12…5325backed Yes | 29c | 57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 30c | 54.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c00…89aebacked Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…4ec4backed Yes | 29c | 50.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc7…fe1cbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 24c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3279…a922backed Yes | 29c | 43.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42ce…d2cbbacked No | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05c2…57d4backed Yes | 32c | 40.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4f…8921backed Yes | 29c | 35.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe26…3fd6backed Yes | 31c | 33.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-11-08?this page
- Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw?No won
- Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2025-11-08?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.