Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 1 - 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73f9c02347b87938440114521d8d1cde3c588f29f356b146e8b5b8c815649d9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,975
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,719
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,975 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed No | 15c | 642.64$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.38 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa04…66e7backed Yes | 20c | 414.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.96 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb96…9545backed Yes | 4c | 401$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 295.7$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf00…33a7backed Yes | 20c | 223$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 15c | 219.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.76 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 17c | 107.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02d1…4210backed No | 63c | 99.97$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 69c | 72.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 15c | 68.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.34 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked Yes | 28c | 64.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 29c | 53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 50c | 49.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7a…6c9abacked No | 72c | 41.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 28c | 40.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 27c | 39.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x630d…875abacked No | 76c | 39.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 67c | 29.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 51c | 23.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 1 - 7?this page
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 1 - 7?No won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 1 - 7?Yes won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 1 - 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.