Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7218ba853bf9d8093f089a44d989d96ddcf5e6590177f65e5ab30bf7791ab29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,112
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,253
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,112 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 71c | 2,270$1,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.05 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 30c | 1,006$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.55 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 55c | 754.01$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.89 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 38c | 572.13$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.13 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb96…9545backed Yes | 29c | 435.9$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.49 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41a4…4187backed Yes | 28c | 423.86$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.98 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 24c | 418.75$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x783c…fd0dbacked Yes | 71c | 413.03$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.76 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f61…8554backed Yes | 73c | 367.4$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.16 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 28c | 311.51$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.7 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f87…2b4dbacked Yes | 63c | 311.47$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 69c | 278.75$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.28 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed Yes | 37c | 253.26$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.67 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbceb…0049backed No | 39c | 182.68$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.72 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…c8e4backed Yes | 58c | 173.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 24c | 166$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 69c | 138.41$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe15a…9854backed Yes | 31c | 128.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.45 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 125$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.12 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 57c | 114.7$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.39 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed No | 40c | 103.49$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 99.1$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.36 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes | 63c | 97.03$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 31c | 95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 31c | 77.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.17 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 70.52$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…57c8backed Yes | 61c | 67.67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…21f5backed Yes | 40c | 66.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 54c | 66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 53c | 60.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed No | 31c | 52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 61c | 50.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 33c | 50.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 47c | 50.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 69c | 39.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 66c | 36.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbe…2520backed Yes | 67c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…9340backed No | 63c | 34.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb731…5797backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c7…100cbacked No | 77c | 28.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…26aabacked Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 60c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 68c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8f…0734backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 16.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?this page
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?No won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.