Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3ce63fa0999b3eb16394019c0b93d3255168d9340f40d6d2f916a9580498cee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,439
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,097
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,439 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 10c | 591.33$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.44 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 28c | 257.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 213.56$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 24c | 208.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 23c | 196.89$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 17c | 194.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7b…bd5dbacked Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbd…a0a2backed Yes | 16c | 138.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 23c | 121.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 103.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f39…4c71backed No | 80c | 98$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 93.58$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 71c | 85.85$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 14c | 79.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…4b28backed Yes | 26c | 58.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd00a…c12dbacked Yes | 22c | 49.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 30c | 47.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4b…4fe3backed Yes | 22c | 46.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 46.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 78c | 44.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc457…1675backed Yes | 26c | 43.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 37.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 77c | 33.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 77c | 33.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 78c | 26.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c28…2343backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 77c | 24.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 76c | 22.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 76c | 21.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 72c | 20.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 79c | 18.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed No | 77c | 15.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed No | 78c | 14.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 76c | 13.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 17°C or below on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or higher on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.