Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b55a2a9c706d4a9b85fbbdd2ea4235afe90c771f7e21cd1bb533c93a220130f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,437
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,437 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80c7…d9c5backed No | 61c | 1,068$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.3 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 49c | 747.42$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.29 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 606.66$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 68c | 235.18$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.47 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.33 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 18c | 202.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 36c | 196.02$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.19 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 50c | 157.83$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.74 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 24c | 157.51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.39 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…4cc8backed Yes | 56c | 141.62$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.77 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 34c | 136.75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.1 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 78c | 113.04$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.01 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 106.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 42c | 101.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 27c | 97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.82 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…14e9backed Yes | 40c | 90.16$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.15 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 52c | 84.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 31c | 79.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.28 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…c8e4backed Yes | 27c | 66.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.37 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7d…63debacked No | 74c | 62.36$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.27 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714c…9c5fbacked Yes | 52c | 57.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…dc4ebacked Yes | 43c | 55.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbd…a0a2backed Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab27…ab66backed No | 72c | 49.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed No | 41c | 49.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 37c | 48.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 53c | 47.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 46.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 68c | 46.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…2650backed Yes | 63c | 46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 88 | 77.3%68 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 75c | 43.87$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 30c | 43.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…ae14backed Yes | 44c | 39.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 39.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…f66abacked Yes | 38c | 39.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e6…819fbacked Yes | 80c | 34.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff9…bf35backed No | 70c | 32.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78fb…256cbacked No | 59c | 32.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…3e8bbacked Yes | 61c | 31.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ed…74cbbacked Yes | 78c | 31.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +54%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 58c | 30.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 42c | 30.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 63c | 30.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c73…1a76backed Yes | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +11.9wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 47c | 29.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 51c | 29.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 75c | 25.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2aa…3e28backed Yes | 79c | 24.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed No | 63c | 24.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x90f5…c4c9backed Yes | 51c | 23.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 52c | 20.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 59c | 17.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d58…cd43backed Yes | 61c | 17.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…abaabacked No | 74c | 14.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 78c | 12.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 17°C or below on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or higher on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.