Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98c53bb76cdad74a4680aaad51f444eebaf88aeaef6715671337fa7dc1865ee6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,387
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,064
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,387 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 2c | 4,276$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.06 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82eb…efe0backed Yes | 71c | 1,018$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.79 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 37c | 795.79$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.45 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 481.12$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 299.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 27c | 257.03$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.36 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 16c | 200.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 27c | 192.59$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.76 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd941…9ccabacked Yes | 8c | 167.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed No | 40c | 149.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.64 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 31c | 145.93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…dc4ebacked Yes | 27c | 135.02$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…4cc8backed Yes | 9c | 125.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 64c | 102.36$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…2650backed Yes | 77c | 101.88$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.14 | 88 | 77.3%68 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xceb0…9e4fbacked Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed Yes | 11c | 88.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +11.9wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 82$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed No | 54c | 77.97$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 24c | 72.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f2…4fc0backed Yes | 26c | 72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked Yes | 74c | 66.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.58 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 54c | 59.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa811…75b8backed No | 73c | 54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 60 | 70%42 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7b…bd5dbacked Yes | 27c | 49.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd00a…c12dbacked Yes | 26c | 48.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…3e8bbacked Yes | 72c | 47.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 23c | 44.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 69c | 43.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba6e…e245backed No | 79c | 39.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 86 | 76.7%66 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd611…53c8backed No | 77c | 38.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 72 | 77.8%56 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 70c | 35.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed No | 75c | 33.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 28.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5059…720cbacked Yes | 74c | 22.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…4d70backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 74c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes | 76c | 19.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 76c | 19.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 80c | 16.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac6a…2ed3backed Yes | 74c | 16.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d7…1a16backed Yes | 76c | 13.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 17°C or below on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or higher on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.