Movies · resolved market
Will “The Witcher: Season 4” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 18 2025)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x357a07f7072f872d9ed0cddc6a8d5fe4026b1cf265d3b14536913274c662c852
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,666
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,666 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 56c | 3,465$1,953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,511.89 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…7934backed Yes | 39c | 3,270$1,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,271.76 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0234…62dabacked Yes | 7c | 2,640$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…cd28backed Yes | 1c | 1,647$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd91c…3830backed Yes | 41c | 1,210$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e3…aefabacked Yes | 11c | 1,024$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 866.55$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b88fbacked Yes | 39c | 773.33$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77e5…ec41backed No | 57c | 710$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.9 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +109.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 65c | 707$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.02 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 669.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked Yes | 36c | 666$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.76 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf15c…6d09backed Yes | 39c | 528.33$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87f5…0febbacked Yes | 10c | 480.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19cc…3ea3backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 14c | 314.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.34 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42a4…554abacked Yes | 44c | 293.57$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd6…2d0cbacked Yes | 7c | 277.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34c7…e73fbacked No | 75c | 246$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 8c | 245.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd865…8a32backed Yes | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 8c | 204.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8266…c472backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +31%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x355d…4a31backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed No | 74c | 160$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25a1…f2fdbacked No | 75c | 155.27$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…e241backed Yes | 17c | 147.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 64c | 143.14$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 60c | 120$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.24 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde5e…3a94backed No | 75c | 89.35$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbff3…c49fbacked Yes | 34c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 66c | 79.98$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -14.8wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7b…bd5dbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdae3…2b4ebacked Yes | 26c | 40.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 74c | 39.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd40d…a592backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0533…c38fbacked Yes | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 76c | 21.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 78c | 19.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will “The Witcher: Season 4” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 18 2025)this page
- Will “Boots: Season 1” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 18 2025)No won
- Will “Marines” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 18 2025)No won
- Will “Nobody Wants This: Season 2” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 18 2025)No won
- Will “The Beast in Me” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 18 2025)Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.