Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x713bbf64d1b17b7d2dc946d291dd965d5a6b1e643a1ded5784089332678299bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,318
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,318 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked Yes | 30c | 3,232$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978.41 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 30c | 2,398$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.69 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 22c | 1,760$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.5 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…7e10backed No | 80c | 1,403$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.5 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed Yes | 21c | 1,375$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.24 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 77c | 1,114$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.67 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 22c | 1,071$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.46 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 23c | 1,067$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.05 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…9816backed Yes | 35c | 809.74$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 777.31$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.83 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 18c | 717.07$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.63 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5adb…440abacked Yes | 33c | 652$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 648.1$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.56 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 23c | 638.33$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.77 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb74…9f08backed No | 69c | 588.95$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.49 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…f109backed Yes | 31c | 578.13$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.66 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 69c | 549.04$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.48 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…a995backed Yes | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed Yes | 20c | 499.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.91 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Yes | 21c | 496.67$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.69 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…562ebacked Yes | 25c | 483.39$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -64%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 22c | 478$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.74 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 79c | 435.16$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.47 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6623…f044backed Yes | 17c | 423.05$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 26c | 360.54$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.41 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd897…9b49backed Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd47a…4e85backed Yes | 21c | 295.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 229.4$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.35 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb96…9545backed Yes | 9c | 220.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +98%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2d…4fa5backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x030c…9038backed Yes | 26c | 189.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb6…735cbacked Yes | 24c | 165.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 22c | 156.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4b…5166backed Yes | 10c | 146.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d18…eae7backed No | 68c | 127.8$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.68 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 18c | 121.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked Yes | 18c | 121$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 119.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x16c0…38acbacked Yes | 16c | 117.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 22c | 115.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 9c | 113$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed Yes | 35c | 103.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8deb…d435backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87b1…1807backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9420…b86cbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfd…6b71backed Yes | 32c | 99.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x984a…2726backed No | 68c | 93.48$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +192.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes | 25c | 91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad1b…439bbacked Yes | 21c | 90.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41a4…4187backed Yes | 22c | 83.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed Yes | 16c | 81.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +247.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbce…fcccbacked Yes | 20c | 81.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x296b…a965backed Yes | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb329…2a8cbacked Yes | 23c | 65.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8b…e8e7backed No | 69c | 63.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 19c | 54.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed Yes | 24c | 53.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7b…bd5dbacked No | 67c | 53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a88…62a0backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1206…1b39backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccc6…0c3cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…4803backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcfb…ecebbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…36e8backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ca…6038backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6510…7bacbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d0…7a89backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…020abacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8878…7c79backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Yes | 23c | 45.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 23c | 43.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ba…e680backed Yes | 34c | 43.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb1…9463backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x633b…2c2ebacked Yes | 33c | 30.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x573b…f847backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x097b…0846backed No | 78c | 29.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1654…2197backed No | 79c | 25.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf763…5c90backed No | 78c | 23.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed No | 67c | 22.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked No | 77c | 18.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 15?this page
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 15?Yes won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 15?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 15?No won
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.