TailMyPicks
Market

MLB · resolved market

Final Stage: Italy vs. Puerto Rico

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Italyof Italy, Puerto Rico
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$312,733

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $312,733 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 313 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6211…b89ebacked Puerto Rico49c26,197$12,837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,836.61714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.38per pick52cpaid-60.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Italy51c20,000$10,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,799.984548.9%22 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Puerto Rico49c17,379$8,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,515.622437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Italy51c13,000$6,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,37015148.3%73 W · 78 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Puerto Rico11c12,190$1,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,381.6412,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Puerto Rico48c11,847$5,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,686.381,04150.1%522 W · 519 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Italy52c11,013$5,719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,294.477753.2%41 W · 36 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+50%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x88b9…0fc9backed Puerto Rico49c10,000$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,9001050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Puerto Rico47c8,435$3,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,970.2147447.3%224 W · 250 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Italy51c7,580$3,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,713.9759549.7%296 W · 299 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Puerto Rico50c7,331$3,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,665.2923351.1%119 W · 114 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6368…6dc8backed Italy51c6,749$3,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,306.815149%25 W · 26 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1e6…1dc1backed Italy50c6,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0008247.6%39 W · 43 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4342…5797backed Italy60c5,695$3,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,277.848960.7%54 W · 35 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Italy52c4,920$2,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,380.8899149.9%495 W · 496 L-10.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Italy78c4,804$3,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,042.966,12355.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L+346.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Puerto Rico47c4,346$2,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,042.5611456.1%64 W · 50 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed Italy53c3,908$2,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,843.36757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Puerto Rico47c3,878$1,808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,808.3254051.1%276 W · 264 L+23.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Puerto Rico33c3,790$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25094734.4%326 W · 621 L-0.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6fc…96f2backed Italy53c3,752$1,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,763.481136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdcad…df78backed Puerto Rico28c3,571$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.8310930.3%33 W · 76 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b52…354ebacked Italy53c3,408$1,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,595.971637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb064…0b34backed Italy52c3,249$1,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,549.61650%3 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+207.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Puerto Rico14c2,841$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.8814039.3%55 W · 85 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57b9…d142backed Italy51c2,754$1,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,362.152951.7%15 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+25.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6557…0999backed Italy51c2,704$1,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,331.48250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-1.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x31c5…ede4backed Puerto Rico50c2,650$1,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,325425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-56.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4355…c5d4backed Puerto Rico9c2,222$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.451136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick23cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Puerto Rico14c2,084$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.2123036.1%83 W · 147 L-11.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x27d2…a66cbacked Puerto Rico48c2,071$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.174459.1%26 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47c6…42d8backed Puerto Rico23c2,001$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.59450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Italy51c2,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98033852.1%176 W · 162 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Puerto Rico4c1,998$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.716725.1%42 W · 125 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Italy51c1,893$966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$927.7140846.1%188 W · 220 L-10.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Puerto Rico1c1,640$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.21336.1%2 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+66.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Puerto Rico21c1,602$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.8885635.7%306 W · 550 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Puerto Rico11c1,565$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.859021.1%19 W · 71 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-51.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf18d…9863backed Puerto Rico17c1,547$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.19128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick20cpaid-64.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Puerto Rico18c1,439$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.7254815.9%87 W · 461 L-41.1wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-44.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Puerto Rico48c1,272$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.6512350.4%62 W · 61 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x463e…fa8ebacked Puerto Rico50c1,260$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.471464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Puerto Rico48c1,259$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.6550751.7%262 W · 245 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebd6…c135backed Puerto Rico2c1,250$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.72714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-54.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa469…4d4cbacked Puerto Rico21c1,237$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.49633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb20…3b5cbacked Italy52c1,201$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.8913561.5%83 W · 52 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Puerto Rico21c1,150$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.4710353.4%55 W · 48 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Italy52c1,143$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.451,53848.6%747 W · 791 L-5.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf026…8df7backed Puerto Rico21c1,139$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.037750.6%39 W · 38 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Puerto Rico21c1,094$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.838644.2%38 W · 48 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-26.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xefa3…d08bbacked Italy76c1,038$789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.172763%17 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Italy51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4905757.9%33 W · 24 L+5.7wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x74cd…2319backed Puerto Rico10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002242.7%6 W · 218 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick7cpaid-64.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf26…609fbacked Italy50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3626…19e2backed Italy51c989.98$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.091010%1 W · 9 L-3.3wins-0.33per pick43cpaid-80.4%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Puerto Rico20c974$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.089241.3%38 W · 54 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-26.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Puerto Rico25c951.44$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.772,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed Puerto Rico21c882$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.195944.1%26 W · 33 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccd7…3eb1backed Puerto Rico9c879.99$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.22650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+32.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Puerto Rico21c876$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.487753.2%41 W · 36 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc44d…935cbacked Puerto Rico48c792.81$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.554656.5%26 W · 20 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Puerto Rico6c769.58$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.292429.2%7 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-20.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb046…af24backed Puerto Rico15c758.08$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11040%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Puerto Rico6c720.25$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4596133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Italy52c693.76$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.4621842.7%93 W · 125 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Italy76c650.78$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.6655541.4%230 W · 325 L-26.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe1c8…8d03backed Puerto Rico12c647.04$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.7825%2 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Puerto Rico46c644.65$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.7631038.4%119 W · 191 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+28.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fba…26dcbacked Puerto Rico49c635.39$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.4123152.8%122 W · 109 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe702…563fbacked Puerto Rico49c602.04$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4328…11d2backed Puerto Rico49c600$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2946749.3%33 W · 34 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Puerto Rico4c569$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.73929.4%37 W · 355 L+1.5wins0.00per pick9cpaid-40.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb580…9b95backed Puerto Rico21c559$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.944841.7%20 W · 28 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-31.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55e9…150dbacked Italy53c546.46$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.19850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+65.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e45…4b13backed Puerto Rico57c529.87$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30011961.3%73 W · 46 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24cb…8a13backed Italy52c520$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1804…7fa8backed Puerto Rico23c517.74$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Italy73c516.61$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.611,19429%346 W · 848 L-0.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d7b…6c06backed Italy49c515.38$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.38540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid+15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc51a…a0d9backed Puerto Rico49c513$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.921136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Puerto Rico39c508.15$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.62850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+28.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Puerto Rico49c500$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2459655.2%53 W · 43 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xab25…b7b4backed Puerto Rico50c499.82$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe115…8c0ebacked Puerto Rico18c458.6$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.55520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa24d…38b2backed Puerto Rico48c413.38$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.34per pick48cpaid-66.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Italy53c399.99$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19045732.2%147 W · 310 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0336…4204backed Puerto Rico3c398.37$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b91…881ebacked Italy52c386.74$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.74757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+39.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Puerto Rico25c376.75$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.028,19246.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L+38.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfbc7…e1febacked Puerto Rico5c368.19$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick18cpaid+17.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3100…9bc9backed Puerto Rico50c366.51$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.261637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick47cpaid+42.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Puerto Rico18c362.76$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.7835137%130 W · 221 L-17.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-25.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Italy53c358.49$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.4944348.5%215 W · 228 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b0f…014cbacked Puerto Rico56c357.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a80…b90abacked Italy51c352.94$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.94520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-60.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d16…4e1fbacked Italy64c324.55$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.1112265.6%80 W · 42 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Italy75c319.88$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.692540%10 W · 15 L-3.5wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-40.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc991…abd4backed Puerto Rico50c315.97$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.214346.5%20 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Italy69c301.23$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.016,30548.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L+181.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Italy79c300.89$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.161,94753.1%1,033 W · 914 L+43.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.