La Liga · resolved market
Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x771ff9302b09e753cc0fb2ed670d02111ef8c10ed73a28916c515e2f0e440ce6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 78c | 3,542$2,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,762.53 | 908 | 43.6%396 W · 512 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Over | 42c | 2,074$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,198.47 | 601 | 47.9%288 W · 313 L | +50.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 20c | 1,499$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,199.3 | 387 | 29.5%114 W · 273 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbec5…8f77backed Under | 16c | 1,344$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.96 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 35c | 857.83$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.55 | 4,729 | 47.1%2,225 W · 2,504 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 607.29$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.12 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 37c | 599.99$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 53 | 66%35 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Under | 34c | 588.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 15c | 503.84$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.25 | 791 | 33%261 W · 530 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7e…cbbdbacked Under | 64c | 389.36$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 61c | 346.21$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.58 | 3,444 | 43%1,482 W · 1,962 L | +31.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3127…ff44backed Under | 33c | 339.39$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39d5…173dbacked Under | 69c | 313.33$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Under | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 23c | 312.42$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.39 | 1,651 | 43.9%724 W · 927 L | -21.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b8…2dd5backed Under | 55c | 311.82$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Under | 70c | 300$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2f…552cbacked Under | 77c | 271.43$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…6d57backed Under | 64c | 223.35$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.97 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x473d…caabbacked Under | 22c | 182.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc763…0534backed Under | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4355…c5d4backed Under | 17c | 128.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 54c | 112$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.94 | 176 | 48.3%85 W · 91 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 151 | 47%71 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeecc…6930backed Over | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 38c | 81.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.73 | 130 | 52.3%68 W · 62 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 23c | 80$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 1,035 | 47.9%496 W · 539 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…1cc7backed Over | 45c | 67.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.21 | 148 | 50.7%75 W · 73 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d1…5557backed Under | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Under | 56c | 58.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 247 | 57.5%142 W · 105 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 49c | 53.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 432 | 55.6%240 W · 192 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 43c | 52.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 181 | 52.5%95 W · 86 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 72c | 45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 46c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 46c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 192 | 47.4%91 W · 101 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b4…74dcbacked Under | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Under | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -58%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Over | 68c | 30.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed Under | 71c | 29.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 123 | 44.7%55 W · 68 L | -11.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd364…2778backed Under | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8a…7fd4backed Under | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 75cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…838fbacked Under | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -8.1wins | -0.16per pick | 68cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…2c2cbacked Under | 71c | 19.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 67c | 17.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 288 | 47.6%137 W · 151 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Under | 75c | 14.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 95 | 70.5%67 W · 28 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 76cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x787a…5ac0backed Under | 77c | 14.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 4.5this page
- Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-1.5)Real Madrid CF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.