La Liga · resolved market
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa310b92514c5ca160f37477e7ae69677388345c8bd5ef98668591863128bf824
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Real Madrid CFof Real Madrid CF, Real Sociedad de Fútbol
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,997
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,284
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,997 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Real Madrid CF | 51c | 3,040$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,490 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 66c | 2,341$1,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,554.68 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Real Madrid CF | 24c | 1,500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,139.75 | 387 | 29.5%114 W · 273 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 71c | 1,454$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.95 | 908 | 43.6%396 W · 512 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1d…820cbacked Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 76c | 1,137$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…2ecfbacked Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +481.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Real Madrid CF | 25c | 350$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.5 | 616 | 57.8%356 W · 260 L | +42.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Real Madrid CF | 26c | 350$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259 | 342 | 52%178 W · 164 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 71c | 300$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 424 | 58%246 W · 178 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1a…26c0backed Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 72c | 139.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.07 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 255 | 51.4%131 W · 124 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…ff5fbacked Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 76c | 79.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 70c | 76.68$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.67 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Real Madrid CF | 34c | 72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.64 | 132 | 49.2%65 W · 67 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8549…41f8backed Real Madrid CF | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 65c | 71.43$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.43 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…f3c4backed Real Madrid CF | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Real Madrid CF | 29c | 54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba0…a6afbacked Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…838fbacked Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -8.1wins | -0.16per pick | 68cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Real Madrid CF | 29c | 47.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Real Madrid CF | 24c | 42.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 413 | 23.2%96 W · 317 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Real Madrid CF | 29c | 35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 1,566 | 51.6%808 W · 758 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1985…8cbdbacked Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…ffd7backed Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…5f03backed Real Madrid CF | 56c | 23.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb15…f4f8backed Real Madrid CF | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 839 | 39.8%334 W · 505 L | -21.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 73c | 14.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 95 | 70.5%67 W · 28 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 76cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)this page
- Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 3.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-1.5)Real Madrid CF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.