NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-15.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc95497190770931ca942b8ba4dd2069c17b25b1afb5896a68a36b0949660fcc1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,289
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,289 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9750…263dbacked Wizards | 48c | 10,443$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5dca…87d0backed Thunder | 53c | 4,500$2,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,115 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Thunder | 51c | 3,533$1,812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,720.84 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Thunder | 46c | 3,188$1,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,714.35 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Thunder | 57c | 1,770$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.74 | 432 | 69.2%299 W · 133 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd705…fb7cbacked Thunder | 55c | 1,278$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.18 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Wizards | 49c | 1,224$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 400 | 41.5%166 W · 234 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7044…2eb6backed Wizards | 60c | 666.67$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -4.9wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8e…156fbacked Wizards | 50c | 605.97$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Thunder | 48c | 584.77$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.06 | 421 | 53%223 W · 198 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Wizards | 46c | 564.86$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.03 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Thunder | 49c | 542.8$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.66 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x691f…5e69backed Thunder | 76c | 526.48$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.2 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked Wizards | 49c | 524.58$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.81 | 192 | 46.4%89 W · 103 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Wizards | 52c | 426$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.71 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf34f…4d6ebacked Wizards | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Wizards | 29c | 332.39$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.46 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe77f…8793backed Thunder | 41c | 289.59$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.16 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -7.3wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4355…c5d4backed Thunder | 48c | 225$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.63 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27d2…a66cbacked Wizards | 67c | 223.24$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 214 | 50%107 W · 107 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae94…7efbbacked Wizards | 48c | 200$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 587 | 54.7%321 W · 266 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Wizards | 54c | 137.52$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.01 | 877 | 44.7%392 W · 485 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Wizards | 61c | 120$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.68 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf0…1139backed Thunder | 33c | 112.16$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.66 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x692e…ee58backed Thunder | 46c | 108.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 174 | 28.2%49 W · 125 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Thunder | 48c | 108.38$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.33 | 258 | 45%116 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Thunder | 41c | 83.11$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.9 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Wizards | 54c | 81.11$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 157 | 53.5%84 W · 73 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…9a4cbacked Wizards | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Wizards | 56c | 71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 342 | 47.7%163 W · 179 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Wizards | 48c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Thunder | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 455 | 44.8%204 W · 251 L | +21.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Wizards | 51c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 407 | 50.6%206 W · 201 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e0…776ebacked Thunder | 45c | 38.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Thunder | 46c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed Wizards | 52c | 34.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 229 | 48.5%111 W · 118 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2996…73debacked Thunder | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 137 | 44.5%61 W · 76 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Thunder | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 596 | 50.3%300 W · 296 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f49…fec0backed Wizards | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 378 | 48.7%184 W · 194 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ead…5c81backed Wizards | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3d…bbfabacked Wizards | 45c | 26.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x100d…1baabacked Wizards | 49c | 25.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cd…15aebacked Wizards | 67c | 19.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-12.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-12.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-13.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-17.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-19.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-20.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-21.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Thunder (-24.5)Wizards won
- Thunder vs. WizardsThunder won
- Thunder vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Wizards: O/U 228.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Wizards: O/U 229.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Wizards: O/U 230.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Wizards: O/U 231.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Wizards: O/U 248.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Wizards: O/U 249.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.