TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Wizards: O/U 228.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$126,368

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,368 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Over56c23,598$13,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,383.366248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2580…1d56backed Under44c23,286$10,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,245.8911737.6%44 W · 73 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7595…50ffbacked Under46c11,913$5,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,508.2211156.8%63 W · 48 L+8.9wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+18.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbc43…96d3backed Over53c10,000$5,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,649.996654.5%36 W · 30 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under2c6,559$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.174,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12f1…7655backed Under45c6,454$2,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,904.320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb82…52ebbacked Over55c5,552$3,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,498.4250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71ea…0febbacked Over55c5,548$3,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,496.6250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e2d…4b5dbacked Under45c5,346$2,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,405.730%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ff5…fa0dbacked Over55c4,788$2,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,154.6250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under45c4,623$2,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,077.569,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Over55c4,316$2,374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,942.011,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4748…8c17backed Under45c3,942$1,774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,773.9250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd79…0f28backed Over55c3,686$2,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,658.72100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Over56c3,000$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,319.9848054.2%260 W · 220 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc20…dc0bbacked Under45c2,751$1,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,240.24837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf1d…3633backed Under45c2,746$1,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,235.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b6…c245backed Over55c2,417$1,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,087.652100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick52cpaid+95.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f40…7befbacked Under45c2,411$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,084.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x58d8…41a2backed Over55c2,323$1,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,045.35250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8df6…1285backed Under45c2,313$1,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,040.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over55c2,239$1,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,007.134,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc891…5958backed Over55c2,219$1,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$998.55250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x481d…eaffbacked Under45c2,206$993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e62…d638backed Under45c2,155$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$969.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under44c2,153$939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.34,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe53f…70c9backed Over55c2,096$1,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d9c…c987backed Under45c2,053$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923.8520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc085…2dbcbacked Over55c2,044$1,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$919.8250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Under45c2,039$918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$917.5434851.7%180 W · 168 L+1.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1774…5708backed Over55c2,034$1,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$915.3250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa709…1f2fbacked Over55c1,980$1,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$891250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6eff…64c2backed Over55c1,830$1,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$822.492100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+95%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa39c…22d6backed Under45c1,767$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$795.15250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d98…1a71backed Under45c1,752$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x654a…0d32backed Over55c1,728$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf035…9bf8backed Over55c1,633$898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$734.85250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07c5…4569backed Under45c1,561$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702.45250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under47c1,511$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706.762,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fef…5946backed Over58c1,442$831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.783151.6%16 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd191…06dfbacked Under45c1,335$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a8f…4bedbacked Under45c1,310$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf630…7e65backed Over55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45029149.5%144 W · 147 L+1.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Over55c999.93$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.9726149.4%129 W · 132 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under4c692.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.728,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7096…7f78backed Over55c550.45$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.6565349.9%326 W · 327 L+20.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a96…0d7cbacked Under45c498.57$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.710748.6%52 W · 55 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1480…6e8dbacked Under43c496.98$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.7758450.2%293 W · 291 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x622b…5a4abacked Under46c450$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20710940.4%44 W · 65 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1a6…afa6backed Over55c370.04$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.5211142.3%47 W · 64 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Over57c367.85$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.8533258.7%195 W · 137 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Over55c360$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1621,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Over56c352.04$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.980653.6%432 W · 374 L+16.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Over57c331.89$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.772,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Under43c326$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.1845646.7%213 W · 243 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under45c322.91$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.033,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9db8…2effbacked Under41c322$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.73737.8%14 W · 23 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93a2…5181backed Under44c287.45$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.1815038%57 W · 93 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over56c279.26$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.893,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under44c254.5$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.985,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb5b…8e29backed Under46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003063.3%19 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick61cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xecfb…3e22backed Under47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-33.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under45c200$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8978648.7%383 W · 403 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb47b…c6b1backed Over58c190.95$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.28256.1%46 W · 36 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Under43c163$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.0956547.8%270 W · 295 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8490…3243backed Over56c135.38$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.567048.6%34 W · 36 L-6.4wins-0.09per pick58cpaid-17.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Over57c134.91$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.011,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dcc…6c18backed Under45c126$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.7250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Over50c125$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.542853%227 W · 201 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc69…80c5backed Over55c122$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.92100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd199…6e2ebacked Under45c105$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.25250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcb3…295ebacked Over55c104$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over72c103.33$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.683,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea74…cf99backed Under47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4753339.6%211 W · 322 L-39.9wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-17.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x642e…063bbacked Over52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483850%19 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0547…fb35backed Over57c99.99$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.9963353.1%336 W · 297 L-2.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Over57c99.3$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.771654.1%387 W · 329 L+21.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6eaa…9baebacked Over55c89.55$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.313554.1%73 W · 62 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x15e6…7cefbacked Over56c89.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.291560%9 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2bc…a4c6backed Over57c87.72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.723464.7%22 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb502…145cbacked Over58c86.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.219168.1%62 W · 29 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x865d…47aabacked Over58c86.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.216160.7%37 W · 24 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x362a…8683backed Over58c80$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.613155%72 W · 59 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over59c78$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.981,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d87…4e0dbacked Under50c77$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.534247.7%163 W · 179 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Over57c70.63$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.3758953.7%316 W · 273 L+15.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fb9…a8b3backed Over58c68.97$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.9723657.2%135 W · 101 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x191b…824abacked Over58c68.97$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.975253.8%28 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Over55c66.4$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.1795047.2%448 W · 502 L-28.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Over59c62$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.421,05549.9%526 W · 529 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Over56c60.05$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.421,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee96…fff6backed Under43c54.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.652751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3437…1e5ebacked Under46c54.35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2513447%63 W · 71 L+0.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Under42c54.35$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.641,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5818…39e2backed Under46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2313950.4%70 W · 69 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Under42c49.98$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9969337.8%262 W · 431 L+2.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca2d…39edbacked Over54c47$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6223651.3%121 W · 115 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc58a…b8f8backed Over57c44.51$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1421550.2%108 W · 107 L-0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Under43c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.287049.3%429 W · 441 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under44c39.02$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.172,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.