TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Wizards: O/U 231.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$325,847

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $325,847 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 166 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Over50c114,108$56,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57,241.1587451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under50c61,836$30,913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,912.784,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Over49c61,488$30,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,358.8766248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under50c31,529$15,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,814.699,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Under50c25,000$12,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,5001,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Over50c21,270$10,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,660.41,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb6f…e420backed Under51c15,686$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,000616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick45cpaid-63.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4408…1b6abacked Over49c13,589$6,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,967.47653.9%41 W · 35 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+17.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Under51c11,438$5,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,833.3837747.5%179 W · 198 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0697…fb17backed Under51c9,388$4,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,788850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x144e…eca0backed Under51c8,622$4,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,3977451.4%38 W · 36 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c75…329abacked Over51c8,000$4,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,9205750.9%29 W · 28 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47a6…69e0backed Under51c6,514$3,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,307.938750.4%195 W · 192 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48e2…2a5fbacked Under51c6,337$3,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,232.117550.9%89 W · 86 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under36c5,908$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,149.93,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb6f…2653backed Under52c5,392$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,80016249.4%80 W · 82 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c74…4ef0backed Under51c5,027$2,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,56418749.2%92 W · 95 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under33c4,877$1,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,596.648,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac1a…f708backed Under51c4,352$2,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,219.519445.4%88 W · 106 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Over50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00079549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Under51c3,922$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00038946%179 W · 210 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under50c3,736$1,873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,873.233,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Under50c3,117$1,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,558.641,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Over50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50087750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x336b…1233backed Under50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5002240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6da6…7d01backed Under52c1,976$1,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0278647.7%41 W · 45 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1bf…f357backed Under51c1,798$917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$916.8616953.3%90 W · 79 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f6e…84b4backed Under51c1,703$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.455349.1%26 W · 27 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under50c1,651$821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821.213,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe85d…c249backed Under6c1,617$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under51c1,608$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$820.086,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under50c1,575$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.531,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Over49c1,500$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.9869149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under36c1,252$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.722,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x353e…9db2backed Under49c1,250$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.085738.6%22 W · 35 L-5.6wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-28.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Under53c1,210$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.471,05549.9%526 W · 529 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under51c1,074$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.864,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3242…0e0bbacked Over50c1,070$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53521247.2%100 W · 112 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x91f7…4767backed Under51c1,049$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.0610651.9%55 W · 51 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed Under50c1,030$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51514245.8%65 W · 77 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Under50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50032051.9%166 W · 154 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Under50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50034855.2%192 W · 156 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5a9…45ffbacked Over50c858$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42923850%119 W · 119 L+1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0828…5cfebacked Over50c835.28$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.8417041.8%71 W · 99 L-11.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-21.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeb49…1fbebacked Over50c807.49$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.779855.1%54 W · 44 L+6.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+10.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Under51c797.67$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.0938148.6%185 W · 196 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbcb8…2f90backed Under51c784.31$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4008844.3%39 W · 49 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2b6…d7cebacked Over50c736.02$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.247542.7%32 W · 43 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1f3…e4a1backed Over50c736$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3682236.4%8 W · 14 L-3.6wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-34.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3f5c…9e02backed Over50c734.84$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.3521546.5%100 W · 115 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Under50c700$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35049345.2%223 W · 270 L-14.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe156…134bbacked Under51c666.67$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34011235.7%40 W · 72 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Under52c648.35$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.8387744.7%392 W · 485 L-1.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Under28c640.1$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.131,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7096…7f78backed Under52c571.57$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.165349.9%326 W · 327 L+20.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1480…6e8dbacked Under50c557.4$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.758450.2%293 W · 291 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7100…b346backed Under51c538.39$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.5820147.8%96 W · 105 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fbc…8a18backed Over51c533$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.174445.5%20 W · 24 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-18.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over69c530$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.33,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb8e…aa15backed Over52c523.97$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.973938.5%15 W · 24 L-5.2wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-30.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under34c500$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1702,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa917…4e8dbacked Over51c490.2$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.29845.9%45 W · 53 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Under5c470.32$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4283039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f0…c9e4backed Over51c467$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.8323850.4%120 W · 118 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60e8…50c2backed Over69c420.05$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.135651.8%29 W · 27 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cef…e3b4backed Under50c401.8$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.93565.7%23 W · 12 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+11.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ece…8786backed Over50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2002864.3%18 W · 10 L+3.4wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+27.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa54d…deb8backed Over50c397.32$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.6611242%47 W · 65 L-13.8wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-22.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under50c351.04$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.752,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2155…f351backed Over51c343.14$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.141580%12 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+26.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe60c…d2e2backed Over50c298$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14914145.4%64 W · 77 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec56…1259backed Over50c277.88$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.159345.2%42 W · 51 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Over51c268$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.3277549.2%381 W · 394 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef86…5afcbacked Over51c268$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.3213352.6%70 W · 63 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under54c250.35$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.191,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee60…6902backed Under20c243$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3937665.4%246 W · 130 L+62.0wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+31.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x7291…3d0fbacked Under51c242.16$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.57945.6%36 W · 43 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under51c240.02$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.412,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfad4…379bbacked Under11c237.86$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510347.6%49 W · 54 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1015…c873backed Under51c212.3$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.2762744.5%279 W · 348 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xceb7…8b33backed Over50c211.14$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.0822148%106 W · 115 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbec4…637fbacked Under50c205.88$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.9453149.3%262 W · 269 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0803…3a65backed Under23c197.17$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4540%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf704…bed4backed Under51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016943.8%74 W · 95 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbff9…009dbacked Under51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10027052.6%142 W · 128 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc15…3a2ebacked Under51c196$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9614144.7%63 W · 78 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xea33…ae06backed Under51c190$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.911759.8%70 W · 47 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe02…5fb3backed Over51c178.75$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.742352.5%222 W · 201 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Under50c167.51$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3789048.8%434 W · 456 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e3a…3246backed Under53c147.38$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.1119954.8%109 W · 90 L+12.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a37…180cbacked Over50c146.45$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.173452.9%18 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fbd…b8d3backed Under51c145.08$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.4467248.8%328 W · 344 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x13e5…1ea5backed Over50c142.34$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.120049%98 W · 102 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x917b…e433backed Over50c136.22$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.711642.2%49 W · 67 L-7.6wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-15.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x40d2…312fbacked Over50c136$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6828852.1%150 W · 138 L+1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb996…038cbacked Over51c136$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6413148.9%64 W · 67 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88a0…f673backed Over51c136$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.646653%35 W · 31 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb81f…2fd6backed Over51c136$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.644443.2%19 W · 25 L-4.2wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-20.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d24…9c89backed Over51c136$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6418744.4%83 W · 104 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Under53c120$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.61,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.