TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-20.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Wizards
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$103,435

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,435 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ade…f5b0backed Wizards47c30,810$14,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,504.731,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Thunder52c15,080$7,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,279.699,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Thunder53c13,610$7,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,396.7887451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Thunder53c7,473$3,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,515.844,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Thunder50c6,934$3,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,500.584,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Wizards49c6,378$3,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,125.181,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9351…ceb8backed Wizards48c5,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc69…80c5backed Thunder51c4,577$2,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,242.732100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcb3…295ebacked Thunder51c4,202$2,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,058.982100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd199…6e2ebacked Thunder51c3,208$1,636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,571.92250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dcc…6c18backed Thunder51c3,131$1,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,534.19250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadd5…3ae2backed Thunder52c2,456$1,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,178.882100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+98.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8717…32c2backed Thunder52c2,445$1,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,173.7141553.3%221 W · 194 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f40…7befbacked Wizards49c2,414$1,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,182.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8df6…1285backed Wizards49c2,235$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,095.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd191…06dfbacked Wizards49c2,140$1,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,048.620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6326…f832backed Wizards48c2,133$1,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,023.84250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6a9…40b6backed Wizards48c2,130$1,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,022.4250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e62…d638backed Wizards49c2,055$1,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,006.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x58d8…41a2backed Wizards49c2,012$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.88250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x269c…9017backed Wizards50c2,000$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.718953.9%48 W · 41 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-14.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1938…c619backed Thunder52c2,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfda7…d8bbbacked Wizards48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa814…8d46backed Thunder52c1,977$1,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$948.962100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+98.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc891…5958backed Wizards49c1,811$887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887.39250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf23a…5319backed Thunder52c1,752$911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$840.962100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+98.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Wizards49c1,684$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.9856043.9%246 W · 314 L-31.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Wizards48c1,671$806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806.131,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc085…2dbcbacked Wizards49c1,639$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.11250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x240d…ae3dbacked Thunder52c1,625$845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7802100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+98.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4479…0e06backed Wizards48c1,566$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.68250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4748…8c17backed Thunder51c1,510$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.9250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eca…bd71backed Thunder52c1,500$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7201100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4746…98f9backed Thunder52c1,500$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7202100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd79…0f28backed Thunder51c1,460$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$715.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Wizards53c1,450$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$765.138,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cb5…6e63backed Wizards60c1,340$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8044658.7%27 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf035…9bf8backed Wizards49c1,212$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.88250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbce5…02f1backed Thunder50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50018651.6%96 W · 90 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Wizards48c970.87$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.612,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Wizards47c903.7$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.333,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5555…2af1backed Thunder52c724.04$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.5421446.7%100 W · 114 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Thunder51c588.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.2427746.6%129 W · 148 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3860…0efcbacked Thunder51c517.98$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.8112950.4%65 W · 64 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf469…dcaabacked Thunder51c515.65$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.6722154.8%121 W · 100 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Wizards49c498.22$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.2589048.8%434 W · 456 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7096…7f78backed Thunder51c423.91$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.4265349.9%326 W · 327 L+20.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Wizards48c416.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20021950.2%110 W · 109 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf09f…8049backed Thunder54c400$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18466645.9%306 W · 360 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x054b…afd5backed Wizards50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020552.2%107 W · 98 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Wizards48c373.18$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.7352230.3%158 W · 364 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1480…6e8dbacked Thunder51c352.85$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.958450.2%293 W · 291 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8230…5121backed Wizards25c326.57$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.6420837.5%78 W · 130 L+38.2wins+0.18per pick19cpaid+115.2%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Wizards47c319.14$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15063447.5%301 W · 333 L-19.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2a0…e1b8backed Thunder49c287.3$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.47633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick60cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x691f…5e69backed Thunder71c281.04$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.936355.6%35 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcad0…2772backed Wizards49c275$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.7520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc20…dc0bbacked Wizards49c265$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.85837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3fd…24b2backed Wizards49c255$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.9520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x862a…d26bbacked Wizards63c251.49$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.51546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e2d…4b5dbacked Wizards49c245$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.0530%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x197a…a15abacked Wizards49c235$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.15250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a8f…4bedbacked Wizards49c225$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ff5…fa0dbacked Wizards49c215$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.35250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x934c…d02bbacked Thunder51c214.09$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.22657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf704…bed4backed Wizards48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016943.8%74 W · 95 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc353…ad3dbacked Wizards49c205$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.4520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb82…52ebbacked Wizards49c195$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.55250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b5c…9a2bbacked Thunder53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.688052.5%42 W · 38 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3eae…ed4bbacked Wizards49c185$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.6520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x031a…50b7backed Thunder54c184.04$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.049357%53 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6fbd…b8d3backed Wizards48c175.91$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.4767248.8%328 W · 344 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x71ea…0febbacked Wizards49c175$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.75250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12f1…7655backed Wizards49c170$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f55…0232backed Wizards49c165$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.85366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x971b…6f63backed Wizards49c160$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.4250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9903…046fbacked Wizards50c159$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf405…9df2backed Thunder65c152.74$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.7443269.2%299 W · 133 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Wizards49c150.42$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.53,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6eaa…9baebacked Thunder51c139.1$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.1613554.1%73 W · 62 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3af0…a593backed Thunder52c133$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.84250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Thunder51c131.72$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.5443543.4%189 W · 246 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x41aa…0741backed Thunder52c131$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.88250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef26…610ebacked Wizards48c125$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Thunder51c121$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.294,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Thunder52c120.47$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.4291746.9%430 W · 487 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6941…ff14backed Wizards48c120$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Wizards47c106.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5097049.5%480 W · 490 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Wizards58c104.89$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.411,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Thunder43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9804…d512backed Wizards50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010349.5%51 W · 52 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Thunder51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x17cb…3ab8backed Thunder54c96.65$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.657437.8%28 W · 46 L-9.6wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-39.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Wizards49c94.51$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.313,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Wizards46c90.27$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.521,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Thunder50c90$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.790357%515 W · 388 L+40.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcba6…bb05backed Wizards46c87.49$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2538853.4%207 W · 181 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Wizards46c79.63$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.631,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Thunder45c78.46$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.415,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9734…8f5ebacked Wizards66c75.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505158.8%30 W · 21 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.