TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 January 26-1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$215,517
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$211,300

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $215,517 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f7a…1d90backed No0c40,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes47c15,482$7,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,243.3187828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes37c12,922$4,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,139.6228021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd26…6bb0backed No0c11,300$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-55.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10800%0 W · 80 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed Yes50c9,564$4,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,804.9522550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes52c4,169$2,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,996.5419535.4%69 W · 126 L-13.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd5b2…989cbacked Yes31c3,944$1,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,704.84862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.33per pick30cpaid+150.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0154…15a8backed No56c3,739$2,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,075.613953.8%21 W · 18 L+6.2wins+0.16per pick38cpaid-2.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0a7c…dafbbacked Yes59c3,371$2,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,369.53366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+25.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0580…96fabacked Yes48c2,238$1,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,164.01366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9197…08d4backed No66c2,110$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400.382445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7967…f4a0backed No67c2,000$1,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3401250%6 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+24.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf371…9812backed Yes36c1,820$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,164.262832.1%9 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-27.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4100…0070backed No68c1,555$1,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,060.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa996…99dabacked Yes36c1,405$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$905.412913.8%4 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+29.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb60e…3574backed Yes35c1,345$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$876.524658.7%27 W · 19 L+5.3wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+35.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc686…5a55backed Yes23c1,283$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$983.331855.6%10 W · 8 L+7.2wins+0.40per pick15cpaid+556.8%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes32c1,048$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713.6737745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f10…ef9abacked No68c1,010$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.97933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-44.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3b92…e122backed No38c1,000$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-62.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d48…6573backed Yes24c981.52$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.342828.6%8 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71e2…31c4backed No32c730$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2344139%16 W · 25 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+4.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9367…8b16backed No76c710.25$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.7920%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x16c9…65febacked Yes31c640.63$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.623212.5%4 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed No55c544.49$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.92728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-57.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b89…baa4backed Yes44c535.36$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.8520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-54.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x768f…c7bdbacked No49c520$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.912556%14 W · 11 L+4.1wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+19.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x087f…f66cbacked Yes47c486.85$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+111%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa29b…a0b8backed Yes45c433.61$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.612744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6244…4fffbacked Yes48c416$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No64c390.58$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.9616537.6%62 W · 103 L-21.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-38.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4f72…230abacked Yes31c377.89$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.19185.6%1 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick20cpaid-82.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe585…91b5backed No72c352.95$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2552857.1%16 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes32c316.87$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.274526.7%12 W · 33 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick15cpaid+197.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b0d1backed Yes34c294.12$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.12238.7%2 W · 21 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-76%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes68c292.65$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.6534848.6%169 W · 179 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5140…9951backed Yes35c285.71$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.71560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+63.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd399…3f46backed Yes31c277.05$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.03850%4 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+198.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4cd9…e02ebacked Yes40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick26cpaid+127.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No61c250$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1538919.1%17 W · 72 L+0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid-42.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96e9…4b32backed Yes61c229.49$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.586758.2%39 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ef…de81backed Yes37c201.34$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.425637.5%21 W · 35 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-13.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x154f…9a12backed Yes34c200$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1322850%14 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+28.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xace5…4457backed Yes43c200$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1141741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick31cpaid-14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc56a…85d7backed No48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick64cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5216…a91dbacked Yes39c196.31$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.75540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd55d…7484backed No42c190$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.83339.4%13 W · 20 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No32c176.33$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9364812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x42a0…3762backed Yes55c170$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.41637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-34.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b9b…7e7cbacked Yes51c168$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.015444.4%24 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4a4…8f65backed Yes30c166.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.671127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick13cpaid+46.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2cb7…93c7backed No63c158.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007950.6%40 W · 39 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked No63c153.33$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.9826274.4%195 W · 67 L+45.7wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+31.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x989c…69f4backed No59c152.64$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.697330.1%22 W · 51 L-18.5wins-0.25per pick55cpaid-54.8%equal weight29-0.19 edge/pick
0x82b5…1542backed No65c150.06$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.541546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-31.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ec5…6eadbacked No67c144.84$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0420%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x60b4…d140backed Yes36c138.89$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.892100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+172.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd050…be7abacked No49c136.45$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.19940.4%40 W · 59 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e8b…e99fbacked No17c135.64$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.467642.1%32 W · 44 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d3a…b2cabacked No75c133.72$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.29333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick69cpaid-56.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5379…a031backed Yes34c126.52$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.3910555.2%58 W · 47 L+11.7wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+24.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd1dd…a272backed No45c115.4$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.411726.5%31 W · 86 L-10.1wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-24.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x870b…3572backed No75c102.67$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick66cpaid-40.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8810…fa4dbacked No56c100.18$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5630%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x41ae…51e0backed Yes40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6014019.3%27 W · 113 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+119.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106221%13 W · 49 L+10.4wins+0.17per pick4cpaid+300.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x17cb…d67cbacked Yes58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa145…6db6backed No46c93.39$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.96850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4043…19cfbacked Yes58c90$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.83053.3%16 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf114…8003backed Yes34c85.5$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.218521.2%18 W · 67 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes35c85.12$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.6831523.8%75 W · 240 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b26…57e9backed No74c81.08$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603275%24 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3ba…33b9backed Yes63c80.8$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.35100%5 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+113.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe06f…7834backed Yes49c78.8$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.19633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd6f…6ac1backed Yes64c78.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.13666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd14…1c17backed Yes45c67.16$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.875954.2%32 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x902d…6eb4backed No46c65.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-24.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b36…9b41backed Yes42c63.21$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.88540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+61.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c08…e7b6backed No50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e38…a018backed No67c58.93$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.48250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-34.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4c5…0951backed No51c58.35$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302425%6 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-64.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed Yes63c54.76$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.265050%25 W · 25 L-8.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-25.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x4e56…d6e3backed No56c53.93$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.28per pick56cpaid-54.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x997c…8f9fbacked Yes42c52.55$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.48785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick53cpaid+55%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No34c52$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.761,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ea2…fe7ebacked No77c51.95$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401952.6%10 W · 9 L-3.8wins-0.20per pick73cpaid-29.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x153b…654cbacked Yes67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.51650%8 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+55.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4b32…9fb5backed Yes45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7984…638abacked Yes47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.51190.9%10 W · 1 L+4.1wins+0.38per pick53cpaid+71.4%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x124c…50c4backed No55c45.45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64c5…feeabacked No70c43.52$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.464955.1%27 W · 22 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-23.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd998…e5c6backed No57c40.35$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick64cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf83…f0aebacked No59c40$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0898…756dbacked Yes44c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x182f…54efbacked No57c40$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80e9…8bc8backed Yes46c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47c3…cf1ebacked No57c40$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7052…c047backed Yes46c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2238…afa3backed No60c40$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.