TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 26-1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$390,021
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$389,475

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $390,021 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd769…f90cbacked No73c40,384$29,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,527.6319535.4%69 W · 126 L-13.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0154…15a8backed Yes38c40,300$15,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,814.093953.8%21 W · 18 L+6.2wins+0.16per pick38cpaid-2.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes2c17,167$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,766.8714213.4%19 W · 123 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+58.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f8d…a19bbacked No6c9,824$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.68333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-57.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef72…3c45backed No16c9,290$1,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,531.854528.9%13 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x41ae…51e0backed Yes4c7,386$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,092.2714019.3%27 W · 113 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+119.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f77…21bfbacked Yes6c6,557$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,157.382100%2 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+987.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc747…324bbacked Yes8c6,135$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,651.276622.7%15 W · 51 L+12.3wins+0.19per pick4cpaid+272.5%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes9c4,801$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,347.3587828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x986b…56bcbacked No25c4,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002528%7 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-37.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf575…0791backed Yes6c3,565$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,368.711637.5%6 W · 10 L+4.0wins+0.25per pick13cpaid+315.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe14b…1ad3backed No29c3,448$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.313633.3%12 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x00b9…4ca6backed Yes26c3,285$859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,425.95650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f1…1c00backed Yes3c3,114$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,013.8786.4%5 W · 73 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c2,960$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,855.051,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac9…ca59backed Yes4c2,635$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,538.22920.7%6 W · 23 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick13cpaid+74.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes6c2,443$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,290.9323411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed Yes53c2,101$1,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$982.6822550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc686…5a55backed Yes2c2,093$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,043.171855.6%10 W · 8 L+7.2wins+0.40per pick15cpaid+556.8%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xc0e0…19ccbacked No15c2,059$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bdc…e8b0backed Yes71c1,835$1,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.812356.5%13 W · 10 L+3.4wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+24.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xabe5…a37bbacked Yes69c1,634$1,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.771450%7 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes3c1,600$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,548.972825%7 W · 21 L+4.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+270.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x253b…0ae7backed Yes3c1,484$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,434.066816.2%11 W · 57 L+8.3wins+0.12per pick4cpaid+273.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes5c1,440$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,373.332999.4%28 W · 271 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5145…2dd5backed Yes7c1,429$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,328.571136.4%4 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick14cpaid+155%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c1,300$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,244.376785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ede…e0e8backed Yes12c1,257$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,111.751723.5%4 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick17cpaid+65.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe153…ba59backed No74c1,246$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921.1430%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7168…e537backed Yes8c1,220$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,119.511020%2 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick33cpaid+37.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes12c1,150$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,008.053438.2%13 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed No26c1,000$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2583836.8%14 W · 24 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcba3…6055backed No3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30150%0 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes3c965.64$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940.644754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No9c955.01$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.942417.1%17 W · 224 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+47.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8586…1316backed Yes11c796.46$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$706.46850%4 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+126.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes12c754.97$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.014526.7%12 W · 33 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick15cpaid+197.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x27f7…88a8backed No65c750$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x05cb…f625backed Yes3c684.88$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663.092213.6%3 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid+141.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x60e8…4001backed Yes6c677.97$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.972334.8%8 W · 15 L+4.5wins+0.19per pick15cpaid+130.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes44c600$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.133644.4%16 W · 20 L+7.8wins+0.22per pick23cpaid+177.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x0a06…921abacked Yes17c529.41$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.41540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+43.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5324…cc22backed Yes29c521.29$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.29683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.47per pick36cpaid+165.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked Yes40c498.1$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.7526274.4%195 W · 67 L+45.7wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+31.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x71e2…31c4backed No21c470$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1014139%16 W · 25 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+4.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e35…b0a3backed Yes6c465.37$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.372634.6%9 W · 17 L+5.1wins+0.20per pick15cpaid+125%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x989c…69f4backed No75c451.54$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.247330.1%22 W · 51 L-18.5wins-0.25per pick55cpaid-54.8%equal weight29-0.19 edge/pick
0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes8c438.51$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.516320.6%13 W · 50 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick12cpaid+62.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes3c422.43$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4115514.5%8 W · 47 L-0.2wins0.00per pick15cpaid+12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5912…2fe0backed Yes25c404.62$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.62450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+46.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked Yes20c400$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3223647.2%17 W · 19 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d86…fcbcbacked Yes70c304$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.59250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-28.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf114…8003backed Yes11c300$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.18521.2%18 W · 67 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0688…7a12backed No20c300$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614650%23 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4829…97ebbacked Yes7c290.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.972445.8%11 W · 13 L+5.0wins+0.21per pick25cpaid+346.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc1fb…100cbacked No36c287.53$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.661233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes27c287.11$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.7414340.6%58 W · 85 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed No25c281.9$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.631428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-23.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca96…e679backed Yes7c266.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.67475%3 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.66per pick9cpaid+641.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes16c250$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21134848.6%169 W · 179 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc55…591bbacked Yes5c245.65$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.511100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.95per pick5cpaid+1,923.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes21c238.9$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.0864812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes25c237.15$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.1513624.3%33 W · 103 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1fdc…b235backed Yes9c232.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.56633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick8cpaid+152%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d7f…4bafbacked Yes77c207.48$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.48560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf312…b94dbacked Yes71c200$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.8475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+29.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xace5…4457backed Yes80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick31cpaid-14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x64c5…feeabacked No60c200$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1204955.1%27 W · 22 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-23.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb60e…3574backed Yes75c200$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504658.7%27 W · 19 L+5.3wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+35.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfa19…1245backed Yes9c168.54$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.54666.7%4 W · 2 L+3.5wins+0.58per pick9cpaid+471.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3a59…a364backed No20c150$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30466.5%3 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-81.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0526…9fc3backed Yes13c100$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.14100%4 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+288.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1399…3586backed Yes20c100$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick31cpaid+301.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x96e9…4b32backed No64c90$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.516758.2%39 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe18a…18e5backed Yes26c87.34$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.371822.2%4 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+298.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde79…f187backed Yes14c78.57$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.86per pick14cpaid+614.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2eb3…a88fbacked Yes30c66.89$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.89250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+67.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No56c65.89$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.065050%25 W · 25 L-8.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-25.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No48c63.12$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2831523.8%75 W · 240 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed No73c60.82$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.271010%1 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-55.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfbb…dc2bbacked No23c60$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.82020%4 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-50.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1aba…9be5backed Yes36c55.87$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.872147.6%10 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+32.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5379…a031backed Yes68c49$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8410555.2%58 W · 47 L+11.7wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+24.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x24df…6965backed No37c48.13$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.71136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-17.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaabb…1b11backed Yes76c37$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.88683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.29per pick55cpaid+58%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ed1…c46bbacked Yes74c34$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.94250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-32.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dfe…b1c5backed Yes72c30.47$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.