Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 January 26-1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98fb93be521408a4c896fe7fde89987eab3e7d0aa8f9aefc46a24f419dbc0d2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $228,070
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $219,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $228,070 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes | 0c | 59,021$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 142 | 13.4%19 W · 123 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 2c | 7,236$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.83 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 15c | 6,111$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.53 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f7…d19dbacked Yes | 2c | 5,557$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8028…6117backed No | 73c | 4,500$3,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,215 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…8af2backed Yes | 24c | 4,262$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.88 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 21c | 3,743$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.57 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4d…5cb3backed Yes | 2c | 3,175$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd389…8378backed Yes | 16c | 2,574$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.99 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 21cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 18c | 1,533$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.71 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70cf…f6cebacked Yes | 21c | 1,444$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d17…a1b3backed No | 80c | 1,250$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed No | 74c | 1,250$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.88 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 10c | 1,142$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.86 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 1,020$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.66 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c6…82e6backed Yes | 3c | 930.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 898.83$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.61 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 14c | 796.5$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +197.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a1…0b8bbacked Yes | 29c | 763.08$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.13 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x038e…d37bbacked Yes | 19c | 725.01$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa793…1776backed Yes | 20c | 700$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…fb76backed Yes | 2c | 642.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4774…db3ebacked Yes | 12c | 533.33$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.25 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeee8…7e06backed Yes | 11c | 500$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd669…f5e7backed Yes | 4c | 461.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | +10.4wins | +0.17per pick | 4cpaid | +300.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5831…3f6cbacked Yes | 13c | 450$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5658…ef3cbacked No | 80c | 375.01$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31c…8fafbacked No | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b27…2f80backed Yes | 3c | 353$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 6c | 271.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ff…d3bfbacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b9…de55backed Yes | 19c | 250$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f2…132bbacked Yes | 50c | 200.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…c7bdbacked No | 50c | 190.4$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.2 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…5486backed Yes | 20c | 190$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…7425backed Yes | 18c | 125$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed No | 80c | 123.75$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e75…e8c6backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 18c | 113$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8810…fa4dbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01f0…8670backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d54…067bbacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a6…0e2dbacked No | 72c | 90$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe82a…db8dbacked Yes | 19c | 89.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c27…494bbacked Yes | 19c | 79.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a38…360bbacked Yes | 21c | 50.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 116 | 5.2%6 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x461c…ec34backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…de81backed No | 75c | 20.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01bd…a2f9backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 January 26-1?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 January 26-1?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 January 26-1?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 January 26-1?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 January 26-1?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 January 26-1?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 26-1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.