Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 January 26-1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97dacec631ac8b1361013da0a7797710387014e2ea47abfc1a405e4eea465150
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $382,546
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $423,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $382,546 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked No | 77c | 28,909$22,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,342.08 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 1c | 20,483$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,209.21 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28fb…69c1backed No | 0c | 18,925$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes | 2c | 17,797$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,397.32 | 142 | 13.4%19 W · 123 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc747…324bbacked Yes | 3c | 14,235$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,745.77 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +12.3wins | +0.19per pick | 4cpaid | +272.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…15a8backed Yes | 26c | 11,553$2,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,559.84 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +6.2wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x562c…6210backed No | 0c | 10,900$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d83…2624backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…18e5backed Yes | 2c | 9,968$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,808.09 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +298.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef72…3c45backed Yes | 72c | 8,281$5,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,298.24 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…51e0backed Yes | 2c | 8,000$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,830 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac8…0306backed No | 0c | 7,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f47…38c7backed No | 1c | 6,351$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.04 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 11cpaid | +464.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x253b…0ae7backed Yes | 5c | 5,111$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,875.35 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +8.3wins | +0.12per pick | 4cpaid | +273.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 2c | 4,371$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,292.5 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f86…87d0backed No | 0c | 4,333$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…0791backed Yes | 4c | 3,213$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,092.58 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.25per pick | 13cpaid | +315.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdc…e8b0backed Yes | 48c | 3,139$1,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,633.79 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c65…0f31backed No | 0c | 2,600$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df2…01afbacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,464.98 | 84 | 11.9%10 W · 74 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | +599.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a5…83dbbacked Yes | 8c | 2,168$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,998.35 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +6.4wins | +0.18per pick | 24cpaid | +109.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 4c | 1,344$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,294.5 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,194$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140.59 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f81…5410backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 859.12$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.97 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 2c | 763$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.21 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +197.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 38c | 732.84$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.41 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 3c | 714.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.29 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +5.0wins | +0.21per pick | 25cpaid | +346.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb60e…3574backed No | 56c | 677.95$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.82 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 7c | 605.26$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.88 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +7.8wins | +0.22per pick | 23cpaid | +177.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…9af6backed Yes | 26c | 584.06$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.86 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 32c | 547.27$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.33 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +270.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 500$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.8 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed69…de01backed Yes | 4c | 499.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +1,147.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc699…7961backed Yes | 68c | 438.44$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd808…c31fbacked Yes | 6c | 409.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,536.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 10c | 360.18$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.5 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38cd…fff4backed Yes | 6c | 347.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 4cpaid | +768.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5b…4a6dbacked Yes | 37c | 300$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 10c | 300$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.1 | 143 | 7.7%11 W · 132 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f4c…d670backed Yes | 38c | 261.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 19c | 238.26$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.91 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…6a4bbacked No | 64c | 227.94$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099d…85cfbacked No | 45c | 220.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf439…f7a8backed No | 21c | 213.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…a577backed Yes | 7c | 201.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.45 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +7.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +241.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0424…cba8backed Yes | 29c | 190.4$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e3…5456backed No | 61c | 182.55$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4a…9de3backed Yes | 39c | 179.23$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.23 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64c5…feeabacked No | 80c | 150$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7466…daf1backed No | 61c | 138.09$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…6965backed No | 69c | 133.33$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.35 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3205…cc50backed No | 50c | 121.57$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.27 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5379…a031backed Yes | 38c | 93.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.14 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cd…77c1backed No | 57c | 93.2$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1315…a84abacked No | 60c | 85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed1…c46bbacked No | 68c | 73.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd1…099ebacked Yes | 39c | 71.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.28 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -55%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fb…100cbacked No | 36c | 56.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b12…a77ebacked No | 65c | 52.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0308…4044backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 32cpaid | +171.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5302…208abacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 January 26-1?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 January 26-1?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 January 26-1?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 January 26-1?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 January 26-1?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 January 26-1?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 January 26-1?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 26-1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.