TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 January 26-1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$150,216
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$158,021

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $150,216 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0154…15a8backed Yes71c28,735$20,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,357.133953.8%21 W · 18 L+6.2wins+0.16per pick38cpaid-2.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1677…7b8cbacked No0c20,910$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f619backed No3c18,300$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4914564.4%29 W · 16 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+10.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes77c10,001$7,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,294.1619535.4%69 W · 126 L-13.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe14b…1ad3backed No26c10,001$2,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,616.793633.3%12 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes66c9,786$6,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,371.8687828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x986b…56bcbacked No26c9,615$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,499.92528%7 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-37.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked No25c9,283$2,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,305.368625.6%22 W · 64 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed Yes68c8,592$5,867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,725.3522550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d3e…783bbacked No34c5,000$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,699.944858.3%28 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4bf…95d3backed No42c4,680$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,980.491323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.23per pick47cpaid-46.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6a65…a930backed No29c4,364$1,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,257.41442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x02c1…2e70backed No26c3,879$1,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,027.812540%10 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5b2…989cbacked No18c3,048$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.48862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.33per pick30cpaid+150.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes55c2,300$1,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,02728021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No20c2,149$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.4664812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xab4e…c4a0backed No23c1,739$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick33cpaid-63.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked Yes68c1,646$1,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.6226274.4%195 W · 67 L+45.7wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+31.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes77c1,396$1,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.0737745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3a5…83dbbacked Yes68c1,184$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.343542.9%15 W · 20 L+6.4wins+0.18per pick24cpaid+109.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x65ae…6ebfbacked Yes57c1,065$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.012352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4774…db3ebacked Yes54c862.23$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.351172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick50cpaid+44.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x85a5…4a63backed No18c822.85$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d17…a1b3backed No13c769.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fbc…1f74backed No22c531.05$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.411758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xce8f…4400backed No32c530$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.64839.6%19 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18fe…6200backed No8c503.22$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf114…8003backed Yes64c471.07$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.898521.2%18 W · 67 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b1b…29cdbacked Yes57c456.14$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.141118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick13cpaid+209.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x71e2…31c4backed No27c400$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1084139%16 W · 25 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+4.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Yes69c352.39$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.02728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-57.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed No19c313.46$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.024526.7%12 W · 33 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick15cpaid+197.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x64c5…feeabacked Yes80c300$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604955.1%27 W · 22 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-23.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No32c299.75$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.5916537.6%62 W · 103 L-21.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-38.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc4b7…57d6backed Yes80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96e9…4b32backed Yes55c249.64$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.46758.2%39 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82b5…1542backed No19c249.05$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.321546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-31.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked No16c224$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.563998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked No5c222.36$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.086813.2%9 W · 59 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick14cpaid+46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa71e…7531backed Yes52c216.53$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+93.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab26…9656backed No17c200$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.284035%14 W · 26 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-41.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a0d…1a09backed Yes79c151.9$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+61.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No19c150.32$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6731523.8%75 W · 240 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b9b…7e7cbacked No32c147.25$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.255444.4%24 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd050…be7abacked Yes75c100.93$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.169940.4%40 W · 59 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106221%13 W · 49 L+10.4wins+0.17per pick4cpaid+300.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x083b…609ebacked Yes56c89.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.29333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd81d…20f7backed No60c83.93$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010067%67 W · 33 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe652…d114backed No44c83.42$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.743050%15 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f50…227ebacked No25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe82a…db8dbacked Yes73c78.64$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.371457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x41ae…51e0backed Yes40c60.03$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.0214019.3%27 W · 113 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+119.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3de6…8428backed No18c56.51$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.05250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-22.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0580…96fabacked Yes69c52$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.12366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7724…cb18backed Yes58c50.51$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab7a…61d0backed No44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb33c…652abacked Yes59c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6ef…ed79backed Yes59c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd616…b77bbacked No45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1872…eb57backed Yes59c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2baf…3252backed No45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6437…75c3backed No44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e11…8927backed No41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe50…92cebacked Yes60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93de…5b15backed No42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40f7…ee8abacked No45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a1a…17febacked No45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82ad…60ffbacked Yes59c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85e4…7144backed Yes59c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x279d…8fb0backed No45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x221e…ba3fbacked Yes59c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1323…97a1backed Yes60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fea…092dbacked No42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54f1…6af9backed Yes59c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5379…a031backed Yes80c47$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5910555.2%58 W · 47 L+11.7wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+24.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd3ba…33b9backed Yes64c40.4$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.545100%5 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+113.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7e2a…06a2backed No33c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.21421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-64%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5784…0830backed No34c35.29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125347.2%25 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ef…de81backed Yes54c26.71$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.175637.5%21 W · 35 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-13.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb8a7…5fb9backed Yes62c24.19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8939…ffdfbacked Yes73c22.35$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.05366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e30…4f3abacked Yes74c20.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.27250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa556…d131backed Yes59c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4aa5…edacbacked Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105038%19 W · 31 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes70c17.21$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.125048%24 W · 26 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.