Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 January 26-1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73e89e4e32c311277ae9ff6b07a9ac556dac3112e5c1c5264875db6de97d006e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $120,912
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $114,381
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,912 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 7,485$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.51 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 5c | 7,216$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.64 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d68…5027backed Yes | 1c | 3,615$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c6…82e6backed Yes | 2c | 3,104$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf103…22b7backed Yes | 1c | 2,055$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,737$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 4c | 1,635$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.78 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a1…0b8bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,334$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.23 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,256$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038e…d37bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,094$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…51e0backed Yes | 5c | 999.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 2c | 961.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb75…910abacked Yes | 2c | 958.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 7cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd389…8378backed Yes | 6c | 951.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 21cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 845.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x615e…5295backed Yes | 6c | 831.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.79 | 227 | 0.9%2 W · 225 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab20…5c57backed Yes | 9c | 744.14$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 17cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe929…299fbacked Yes | 4c | 626.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd669…f5e7backed Yes | 4c | 600$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | +10.4wins | +0.17per pick | 4cpaid | +300.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 456.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x845c…7bc9backed Yes | 4c | 366.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x625e…76e3backed Yes | 3c | 349.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 6c | 294.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 274.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 149 | 9.4%14 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 8c | 190$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e35…b0a3backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.20per pick | 15cpaid | +125%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x060f…6935backed Yes | 17c | 59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 January 26-1?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 January 26-1?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 January 26-1?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 January 26-1?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 January 26-1?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 January 26-1?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 26-1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.