Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 January 26-1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18cab2439423e77d2725322d94f09e5d49667f0fc9b5b01679454856186a358f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $257,472
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $246,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $257,472 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0154…15a8backed Yes | 69c | 41,500$28,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,779.79 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +6.2wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed Yes | 53c | 16,330$8,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,723.55 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02c1…2e70backed No | 18c | 16,307$3,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,007.72 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf986…bc7dbacked No | 20c | 13,046$2,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,546.96 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 24c | 10,934$2,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,351.53 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…56bcbacked No | 18c | 10,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 52c | 6,908$3,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,343.77 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe14b…1ad3backed No | 23c | 6,617$1,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,521.91 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 35c | 5,838$2,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,772.95 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1f…7631backed No | 18c | 5,026$927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926.71 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a65…a930backed No | 19c | 3,673$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.87 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b2…989cbacked Yes | 19c | 2,852$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,309.61 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.33per pick | 30cpaid | +150.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 19c | 2,500$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,025 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b78…4d2fbacked No | 53c | 2,169$1,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,146.62 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -5.9wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xca3d…9dc1backed Yes | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf371…9812backed No | 19c | 1,522$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.11 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 13c | 1,500$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,305 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa996…99dabacked Yes | 14c | 1,397$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,197.08 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x820c…379dbacked No | 78c | 1,313$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…e99fbacked No | 13c | 1,092$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.51 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 46c | 1,034$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.98 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc747…324bbacked Yes | 16c | 1,029$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.98 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +12.3wins | +0.19per pick | 4cpaid | +272.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0c52…9e1bbacked No | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…51e0backed Yes | 25c | 999.99$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.99 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf31a…bfbabacked Yes | 10c | 987.9$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.11 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 10cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe05f…fa24backed Yes | 25c | 923.33$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.41per pick | 19cpaid | +166.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…65febacked Yes | 13c | 766.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.03 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 23c | 717.5$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.33 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 34c | 666.08$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.08 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 24c | 617.25$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.45 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc56a…85d7backed No | 77c | 588.99$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.65 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe16f…655cbacked Yes | 17c | 582.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.27 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 13c | 529.5$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.87 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0688…7a12backed No | 31c | 520$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.7 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 10c | 506.69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.37 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d48…6573backed Yes | 66c | 456.18$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.1 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee8…7e06backed Yes | 16c | 411.94$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.84 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes | 62c | 319.42$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.43 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed No | 73c | 319.15$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.87 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 65c | 319$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.61 | 89 | 19.1%17 W · 72 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf632…02aabacked No | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8010…c05fbacked No | 37c | 260.44$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.36 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 26c | 242.9$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.52 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +5.0wins | +0.21per pick | 25cpaid | +346.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 14c | 218.48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.78 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba35…1b73backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +3.5wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +1,739.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb60e…3574backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed Yes | 67c | 186.81$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.92 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7e7cbacked Yes | 29c | 174$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.3 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…de81backed Yes | 24c | 160.75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.06 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…ac12backed Yes | 27c | 148$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.04 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9280…8e0fbacked No | 73c | 148$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989c…69f4backed No | 47c | 134.2$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.3 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -18.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x9e35…b0a3backed Yes | 18c | 105.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.56 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.20per pick | 15cpaid | +125%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…d6e3backed No | 35c | 102.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 56cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0526…9fc3backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +288.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4122…6c07backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c10…0568backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01f0…8670backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.16 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4e…a562backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.07 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9832…6e4dbacked Yes | 35c | 99.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.37 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 23c | 96.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.72 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +197.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 11c | 92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.88 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac88…34ddbacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 20cpaid | +172.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b36…9b41backed Yes | 18c | 70$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xace5…4457backed Yes | 65c | 68.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…2d98backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc6…9561backed No | 23c | 60.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd050…be7abacked No | 78c | 57.87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3955…74cabacked No | 21c | 56.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe82a…db8dbacked Yes | 25c | 54.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 66c | 52.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -8.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2afe…2efdbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +146.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c5…0951backed No | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5379…a031backed Yes | 68c | 41.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d7…2d5ebacked No | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed Yes | 27c | 40.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +113.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae05…f5d1backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…51a9backed Yes | 39c | 37.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +180.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa550…836fbacked Yes | 80c | 36.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…8f9fbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 53cpaid | +55%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 January 26-1?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 January 26-1?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 January 26-1?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 January 26-1?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 January 26-1?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 January 26-1?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 January 26-1?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 26-1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.