Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 January 26-1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe63224e75050570ee28397eba843519cc9119fc2489ff9800d186a2496c7444
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,131,310
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,083,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,131,310 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes | 7c | 85,149$5,676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,675.5 | 142 | 13.4%19 W · 123 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef72…3c45backed Yes | 6c | 74,102$4,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,613.67 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8892…c9eebacked Yes | 0c | 67,071$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +188.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253b…0ae7backed Yes | 3c | 31,578$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.74 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +8.3wins | +0.12per pick | 4cpaid | +273.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 2c | 20,921$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.13 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcba3…6055backed Yes | 1c | 20,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 1c | 18,854$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca5…8727backed Yes | 19c | 18,664$3,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,484.49 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +280.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf78f…3682backed Yes | 9c | 12,935$1,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,181.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc747…324bbacked Yes | 1c | 11,932$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.92 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +12.3wins | +0.19per pick | 4cpaid | +272.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 11,323$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.65 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2894…66c0backed Yes | 4c | 10,386$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa206…2cadbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x433b…6647backed Yes | 10c | 9,920$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…7112backed Yes | 7c | 9,000$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x226c…6bafbacked Yes | 12c | 7,703$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +202.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11ab…c8a7backed Yes | 15c | 7,500$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…a364backed Yes | 7c | 7,152$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.39 | 46 | 6.5%3 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63d6…0184backed Yes | 13c | 6,473$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +311.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3050…352ebacked Yes | 25c | 5,986$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,520 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 5,348$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.35 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…b235backed Yes | 3c | 5,216$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 8cpaid | +152%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 8c | 5,209$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.38 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc699…7961backed Yes | 12c | 5,184$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…0791backed Yes | 3c | 5,174$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.25per pick | 13cpaid | +315.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…3248backed Yes | 3c | 5,035$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.2 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +111.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.4 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf023…8e33backed Yes | 17c | 4,434$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.49 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +126%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…bb45backed Yes | 12c | 4,107$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…51e0backed Yes | 2c | 4,005$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.05 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0995…620dbacked Yes | 5c | 3,920$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.05 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…e38abacked Yes | 7c | 3,583$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd14…1c17backed Yes | 20c | 3,497$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.08 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaefd…24d1backed Yes | 15c | 3,356$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 1c | 3,224$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd88f…4846backed Yes | 26c | 3,014$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a5…83dbbacked Yes | 10c | 2,933$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.85 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +6.4wins | +0.18per pick | 24cpaid | +109.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b4…c169backed Yes | 12c | 2,654$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e0…281ebacked Yes | 17c | 2,489$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5145…2dd5backed Yes | 2c | 2,444$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 14cpaid | +155%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe555…a91dbacked Yes | 6c | 2,393$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.78 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -91.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00b9…4ca6backed Yes | 12c | 2,129$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 8c | 1,813$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 3c | 1,764$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.82 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,688$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.58 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf0…28c0backed Yes | 9c | 1,600$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +223.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5b…4a6dbacked Yes | 20c | 1,552$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.02 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Yes | 8c | 1,522$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.94 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 10c | 1,424$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.07 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,406$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…d271backed Yes | 9c | 1,330$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.66 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ee…04c2backed Yes | 5c | 1,313$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.9 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.20per pick | 17cpaid | +119.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 6c | 1,302$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.92 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +197.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e64…9b93backed Yes | 23c | 1,300$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.32 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc484…eca6backed Yes | 2c | 1,159$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b47…af01backed Yes | 9c | 1,102$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 137 | 5.8%8 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf63a…d769backed Yes | 12c | 1,065$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…8526backed Yes | 3c | 1,026$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 128 | 5.5%7 W · 121 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1f…d7cebacked Yes | 17c | 1,012$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 11cpaid | +176.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e1…1728backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | +188.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes | 3c | 940.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 106 | 7.5%8 W · 98 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…1d11backed Yes | 13c | 939.01$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e8…6e37backed Yes | 5c | 928.64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…fb86backed Yes | 7c | 927.51$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.31 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…b4bbbacked Yes | 17c | 908.26$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.38 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | +208.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…de36backed Yes | 9c | 900$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.7 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8586…1316backed Yes | 3c | 886.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +126.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +7.2wins | +0.40per pick | 15cpaid | +556.8%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…76bebacked Yes | 10c | 807.42$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.65 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4a…9de3backed Yes | 18c | 802.99$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.32 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0acc…9dc1backed Yes | 6c | 793.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f4c…d670backed Yes | 17c | 765.47$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 9c | 752.94$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.82 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 2c | 733.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 98 | 5.1%5 W · 93 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5320…f3b2backed Yes | 14c | 696.8$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3955…74cabacked Yes | 21c | 644.05$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60f1…cb3ebacked Yes | 33c | 597.01$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 122 | 59.8%73 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc67c…52e3backed Yes | 3c | 587.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…7101backed Yes | 13c | 541.01$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.42 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +5.7wins | +0.16per pick | 12cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe929…299fbacked Yes | 4c | 511.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…f45bbacked Yes | 6c | 500.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +118.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 10c | 470$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 143 | 7.7%11 W · 132 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…f519backed Yes | 13c | 456.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa54e…7326backed Yes | 27c | 443.06$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +151.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e38…aed1backed Yes | 11c | 424.61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91dd…98aebacked Yes | 8c | 418.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 5c | 410$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +7.8wins | +0.22per pick | 23cpaid | +177.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…657cbacked Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 79c | 400$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.6 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc596…c316backed Yes | 10c | 388.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…2584backed Yes | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7714…0720backed Yes | 5c | 363.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Yes | 8c | 354.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc190…312ebacked Yes | 6c | 350.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 12cpaid | +139.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 8c | 321.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0b…c827backed Yes | 6c | 317.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e35…b0a3backed Yes | 4c | 313.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.20per pick | 15cpaid | +125%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f47…338ebacked Yes | 32c | 300$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.1 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Yes | 6c | 299$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 January 26-1?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 January 26-1?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 January 26-1?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 January 26-1?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 January 26-1?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 January 26-1?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 26-1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.