TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 January 26-1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,131,310
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,083,251

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,131,310 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes7c85,149$5,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,675.514213.4%19 W · 123 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+58.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef72…3c45backed Yes6c74,102$4,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,613.674528.9%13 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8892…c9eebacked Yes0c67,071$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.52333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick16cpaid+188.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x253b…0ae7backed Yes3c31,578$876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$875.746816.2%11 W · 57 L+8.3wins+0.12per pick4cpaid+273.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes2c20,921$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.134754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcba3…6055backed Yes1c20,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200150%0 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes1c18,854$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501466.2%9 W · 137 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca5…8727backed Yes19c18,664$3,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,484.494515.6%7 W · 38 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick8cpaid+280.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf78f…3682backed Yes9c12,935$1,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,181.8450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc747…324bbacked Yes1c11,932$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.926622.7%15 W · 51 L+12.3wins+0.19per pick4cpaid+272.5%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c11,323$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.651,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2894…66c0backed Yes4c10,386$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.27250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa206…2cadbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-51.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x433b…6647backed Yes10c9,920$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a3f…7112backed Yes7c9,000$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6372512%3 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x226c…6bafbacked Yes12c7,703$907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$907616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+202.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11ab…c8a7backed Yes15c7,500$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,125175.9%1 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a59…a364backed Yes7c7,152$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.39466.5%3 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-81.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x63d6…0184backed Yes13c6,473$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.56333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+311.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3050…352ebacked Yes25c5,986$1,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,52010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes19c5,348$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,025.3564812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1fdc…b235backed Yes3c5,216$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick8cpaid+152%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes8c5,209$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.3823411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc699…7961backed Yes12c5,184$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick19cpaid-22.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf575…0791backed Yes3c5,174$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501637.5%6 W · 10 L+4.0wins+0.25per pick13cpaid+315.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6d7e…3248backed Yes3c5,035$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.23630.6%11 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick20cpaid+111.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes2c5,000$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.428021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf023…8e33backed Yes17c4,434$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745.491338.5%5 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+126%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb0b…bb45backed Yes12c4,107$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41ae…51e0backed Yes2c4,005$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.0514019.3%27 W · 113 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+119.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0995…620dbacked Yes5c3,920$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.051717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-35.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5adf…e38abacked Yes7c3,583$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd14…1c17backed Yes20c3,497$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.085954.2%32 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaefd…24d1backed Yes15c3,356$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50070%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes1c3,224$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.19366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd88f…4846backed Yes26c3,014$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3a5…83dbbacked Yes10c2,933$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.853542.9%15 W · 20 L+6.4wins+0.18per pick24cpaid+109.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd6b4…c169backed Yes12c2,654$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3281010%1 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-59.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47e0…281ebacked Yes17c2,489$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick15cpaid+63.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5145…2dd5backed Yes2c2,444$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491136.4%4 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick14cpaid+155%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe555…a91dbacked Yes6c2,393$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.78147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-91.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00b9…4ca6backed Yes12c2,129$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.6650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes8c1,813$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501379.5%13 W · 124 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+25.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes3c1,764$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.823998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes6c1,688$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.582999.4%28 W · 271 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbbf0…28c0backed Yes9c1,600$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+223.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa5b…4a6dbacked Yes20c1,552$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.021127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-48.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Yes8c1,522$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.941010%1 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-55.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf114…8003backed Yes10c1,424$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.078521.2%18 W · 67 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c1,406$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.746785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24bb…d271backed Yes9c1,330$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.6660%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa4ee…04c2backed Yes5c1,313$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.91637.5%6 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.20per pick17cpaid+119.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes6c1,302$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.924526.7%12 W · 33 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick15cpaid+197.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1e64…9b93backed Yes23c1,300$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.321250%6 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+60.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc484…eca6backed Yes2c1,159$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b47…af01backed Yes9c1,102$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+60.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes3c1,100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.71375.8%8 W · 129 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf63a…d769backed Yes12c1,065$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1272817.9%5 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick12cpaid+54.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8304…8526backed Yes3c1,026$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.541285.5%7 W · 121 L+0.6wins0.00per pick5cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d1f…d7cebacked Yes17c1,012$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick11cpaid+176.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e1…1728backed Yes2c1,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick4cpaid+188.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes3c940.49$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.551067.5%8 W · 98 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+32.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x437b…1d11backed Yes13c939.01$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9e8…6e37backed Yes5c928.64$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb29…fb86backed Yes7c927.51$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.3150%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf095…b4bbbacked Yes17c908.26$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.38911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick4cpaid+208.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb25…de36backed Yes9c900$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.71947.4%9 W · 10 L+2.9wins+0.15per pick32cpaid+97.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8586…1316backed Yes3c886.09$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.69850%4 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+126.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc686…5a55backed Yes12c833.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001855.6%10 W · 8 L+7.2wins+0.40per pick15cpaid+556.8%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x10bc…76bebacked Yes10c807.42$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.652339.1%9 W · 14 L+3.3wins+0.14per pick25cpaid+71.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8c4a…9de3backed Yes18c802.99$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.322240.9%9 W · 13 L+3.3wins+0.15per pick26cpaid+43.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0acc…9dc1backed Yes6c793.6$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f4c…d670backed Yes17c765.47$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.75825%2 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes9c752.94$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.826320.6%13 W · 50 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick12cpaid+62.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes2c733.23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.13985.1%5 W · 93 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+68.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5320…f3b2backed Yes14c696.8$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3955…74cabacked Yes21c644.05$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.7730%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x60f1…cb3ebacked Yes33c597.01$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20012259.8%73 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc67c…52e3backed Yes3c587.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a84…7101backed Yes13c541.01$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.423627.8%10 W · 26 L+5.7wins+0.16per pick12cpaid+6.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe929…299fbacked Yes4c511.59$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23287.1%2 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+34.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57f0…f45bbacked Yes6c500.08$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.66333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+118.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd859…38c5backed Yes10c470$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.681437.7%11 W · 132 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x505a…f519backed Yes13c456.09$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa54e…7326backed Yes27c443.06$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+151.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e38…aed1backed Yes11c424.61$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91dd…98aebacked Yes8c418.5$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes5c410$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.533644.4%16 W · 20 L+7.8wins+0.22per pick23cpaid+177.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xee3b…657cbacked Yes6c400$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.731612.5%2 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf350…f3ffbacked No79c400$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.63438.2%13 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc596…c316backed Yes10c388.62$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb211…2584backed Yes8c375$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7714…0720backed Yes5c363.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-32.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Yes8c354.17$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.991838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+64%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc190…312ebacked Yes6c350.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201040%4 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.28per pick12cpaid+139.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes8c321.04$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.657424.3%18 W · 56 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d0b…c827backed Yes6c317.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-39.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e35…b0a3backed Yes4c313.18$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142634.6%9 W · 17 L+5.1wins+0.20per pick15cpaid+125%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6f47…338ebacked Yes32c300$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.12927.6%8 W · 21 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-47.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x05f9…f351backed Yes6c299$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.45160%0 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.