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Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 January 26-1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$419,537
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$357,497

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $419,537 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0154…15a8backed No67c19,362$13,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,344.133953.8%21 W · 18 L+6.2wins+0.16per pick38cpaid-2.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes2c19,034$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.224754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfbd…1782backed Yes0c15,934$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.53714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick1cpaid+580.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5a8…d4c0backed Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick3cpaid+175.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes40c11,182$4,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,454.1987828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes53c10,602$5,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,658.4119535.4%69 W · 126 L-13.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1023411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ea7…bcd9backed Yes50c8,600$4,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,3001233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-31.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc686…5a55backed Yes2c5,878$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001855.6%10 W · 8 L+7.2wins+0.40per pick15cpaid+556.8%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x6a42…d2dbbacked Yes2c4,660$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32bc…1dabbacked Yes2c4,449$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d68…5027backed Yes4c4,417$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.5560%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x41ae…51e0backed Yes3c3,952$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.3314019.3%27 W · 113 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+119.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6512…78c9backed Yes2c3,664$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c3,570$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.151,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d3e…783bbacked No70c3,000$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9004858.3%28 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6402…2fa1backed Yes3c3,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90643.1%2 W · 62 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-72.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes14c2,942$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4254526.7%12 W · 33 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick15cpaid+197.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a59…a364backed Yes1c2,750$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22466.5%3 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-81.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes32c2,644$854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853.8228021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x253b…0ae7backed Yes1c2,625$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.386816.2%11 W · 57 L+8.3wins+0.12per pick4cpaid+273.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfa19…1245backed Yes1c2,490$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.52666.7%4 W · 2 L+3.5wins+0.58per pick9cpaid+471.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed No65c2,479$1,603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875.9722550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9ef…410bbacked Yes1c2,222$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201233.3%4 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.26per pick8cpaid+475.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6f10…ef9abacked No55c2,000$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-44.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x26b1…c3ddbacked Yes1c2,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241020%2 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick9cpaid+183.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc148…ff78backed Yes1c2,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38cd…fff4backed Yes3c1,838$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick4cpaid+768.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5831…3f6cbacked Yes3c1,800$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.460%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe929…299fbacked Yes3c1,732$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46287.1%2 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+34.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08f4…71a8backed Yes1c1,714$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes2c1,700$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.33998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x615e…5295backed Yes1c1,500$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.52270.9%2 W · 225 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c1,305$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.126785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70cf…f6cebacked Yes53c1,137$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+58.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f64…792bbacked Yes2c1,105$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-86.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes2c1,093$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.312999.4%28 W · 271 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1137…4ed5backed No76c1,036$788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.521651.4%111 W · 105 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3761…bb47backed Yes2c1,010$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206615.2%10 W · 56 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+27.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd434…b5debacked No69c1,000$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7721…5ef3backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa938…3bc3backed No71c935.56$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.563100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+49.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda4a…2184backed Yes3c816.8$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.191127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-39.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe584…304bbacked Yes1c770$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x142e…75fbbacked Yes2c700$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes33c681.09$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.0964812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0d47…f101backed Yes3c676.42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x988a…cfeebacked Yes3c626.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3a5…83dbbacked Yes40c615.12$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2463542.9%15 W · 20 L+6.4wins+0.18per pick24cpaid+109.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd399…3f46backed Yes46c605$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.05850%4 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+198.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08c6…82e6backed Yes4c583.77$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48bc…040ebacked Yes2c557.41$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1350%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa793…1776backed Yes30c550$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.531910.5%2 W · 17 L-3.9wins-0.21per pick31cpaid-83.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x65e7…89ffbacked Yes20c500.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100598.5%5 W · 54 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-63.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked No46c500$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.078625.6%22 W · 64 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f619backed No37c500$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3154564.4%29 W · 16 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+10.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7d48…6573backed Yes60c483.97$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.382828.6%8 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeee8…7e06backed Yes13c470$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.96940.6%28 W · 41 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2f7…d19dbacked Yes2c447.77$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes2c421.67$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.476221%13 W · 49 L+10.4wins+0.17per pick4cpaid+300.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x0d17…a1b3backed No51c388.37$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.37650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0258…13bfbacked No60c350$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.518162.4%113 W · 68 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f3…bbbebacked Yes5c338.78$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82b5…1542backed No58c334.98$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.691546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-31.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd81d…20f7backed No63c331.71$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.7110067%67 W · 33 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xace5…4457backed Yes15c300$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick31cpaid-14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf371…9812backed Yes5c300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152832.1%9 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-27.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71e2…31c4backed No51c299.92$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.964139%16 W · 25 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+4.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9ff…d3bfbacked Yes37c270.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005117.6%9 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6244…4fffbacked Yes37c270.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked No70c241.97$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.5226274.4%195 W · 67 L+45.7wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+31.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x3e3b…eeb1backed No51c237.04$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.04333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8593…c931backed Yes46c217.65$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x65ae…6ebfbacked Yes45c200.95$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85e9…5e96backed No57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No42c200$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1168919.1%17 W · 72 L+0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid-42.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd68…90efbacked Yes43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e38…a018backed No77c186.39$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.39250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-34.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a59…ff57backed No67c181.44$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b36…9b41backed Yes9c170$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+61.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x712a…8ef9backed No76c169.8$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.753100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf1f…3537backed No44c160$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.62857.1%16 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f27…4243backed No64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.25560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick70cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42a0…3762backed No57c150$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.51637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-34.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x302d…cd3fbacked No61c148.65$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x75ea…1616backed No58c140.09$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.093050%15 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf114…8003backed Yes9c132.64$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.68521.2%18 W · 67 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x400c…781ebacked Yes37c132.05$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.861127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe924…f68abacked Yes39c128.36$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.25per pick33cpaid+57%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd050…be7abacked No63c126.43$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.299940.4%40 W · 59 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80d9…a756backed Yes56c125$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702650%13 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6eeb…c3d7backed Yes56c125$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702548%12 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ef…de81backed Yes33c111.89$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.555637.5%21 W · 35 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-13.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5379…a031backed Yes38c109.06$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9610555.2%58 W · 47 L+11.7wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+24.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9c10…0568backed Yes29c103.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick18cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4122…6c07backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141040%4 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+38.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa24d…2633backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01f0…8670backed No63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.481861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fe9…bb0abacked No41c100$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5916729.3%49 W · 118 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f061backed No58c94.83$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.83333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.