Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 January 26-1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71e122ae00114d09e39223e3c670702f3a5b74e7cee3a2281a10b6bf6d879bfd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $188,113
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $169,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $188,113 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb63a…4064backed Yes | 77c | 18,363$14,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,266.57 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 30c | 13,021$3,959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,062.88 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 4c | 11,037$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,595.37 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 120 | 25%30 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…15a8backed Yes | 40c | 8,506$3,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,068.46 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +6.2wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3428…be2bbacked No | 51c | 6,307$3,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,188.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 4c | 4,508$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,327.32 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +7.2wins | +0.40per pick | 15cpaid | +556.8%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1f…7631backed No | 64c | 4,087$2,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,601.52 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc747…324bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,525$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,413.63 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +12.3wins | +0.19per pick | 4cpaid | +272.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x51e4…a9d6backed No | 68c | 1,970$1,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,339.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…1a14backed Yes | 11c | 1,398$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,243.82 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 4c | 1,355$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,305.33 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…e99fbacked No | 41c | 1,097$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.22 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f81…5410backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f1…1c00backed Yes | 5c | 967.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.67 | 78 | 6.4%5 W · 73 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f5…2eb0backed Yes | 5c | 925.45$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +890.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc006…1c7abacked No | 67c | 856.1$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.02 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 771.1$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.7 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 44c | 735.36$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.44 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c52…9e1bbacked No | 51c | 656.98$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x222f…8e2dbacked Yes | 45c | 520.11$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +301.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 5c | 504.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.81 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +5.0wins | +0.21per pick | 25cpaid | +346.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x71e2…31c4backed No | 29c | 499.99$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0688…7a12backed No | 39c | 420$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.38 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 7c | 362.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.91 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x989c…69f4backed No | 61c | 360.67$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.95 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -18.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xeee8…7e06backed Yes | 17c | 331.09$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.29 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 32c | 330.78$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.68 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd669…f5e7backed Yes | 6c | 321.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.6 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | +10.4wins | +0.17per pick | 4cpaid | +300.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x495b…8762backed Yes | 39c | 306.28$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +155.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa302…74e8backed Yes | 44c | 303.44$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.41per pick | 19cpaid | +456.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb7…93c7backed No | 57c | 282.19$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaa…1163backed Yes | 14c | 258$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +626.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 9c | 257.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.4 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +197.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 254$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.08 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…3f46backed Yes | 6c | 240$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +198.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…1b95backed Yes | 45c | 221.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +126.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd14…1c17backed Yes | 50c | 201.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.25 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1247…9ce9backed No | 65c | 200$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.4 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace5…4457backed Yes | 50c | 200$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.2 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd02c…769fbacked No | 51c | 194.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x469e…edf8backed Yes | 9c | 180$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 9cpaid | +200.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1dd…a272backed No | 43c | 179.2$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.36 | 117 | 26.5%31 W · 86 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c5…0951backed No | 58c | 174.87$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.79 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 72c | 172.93$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 89 | 19.1%17 W · 72 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e35…b0a3backed Yes | 19c | 158.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.71 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.20per pick | 15cpaid | +125%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 10c | 152.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.22 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d30…70b6backed No | 69c | 144.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 27c | 109.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.15 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0526…9fc3backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +288.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb95a…0261backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6c…e10dbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bb…cb45backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c5…feeabacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed Yes | 38c | 85.66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.88 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5379…a031backed Yes | 37c | 85.32$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.64 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…d6e3backed No | 59c | 80.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 56cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6610…ff9bbacked Yes | 15c | 75.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 11cpaid | +297.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9112…7797backed No | 56c | 61.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2f…4c21backed No | 45c | 55.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 61c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8e…c051backed Yes | 60c | 40.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaabb…1b11backed Yes | 50c | 39.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +58%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…f887backed No | 80c | 34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 75cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed Yes | 34c | 33.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4589…d745backed Yes | 51c | 29.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c19…cc52backed Yes | 59c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa5…edacbacked Yes | 41c | 26.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa550…836fbacked No | 63c | 25.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…3243backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cba…9988backed Yes | 61c | 16.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33da…eb72backed Yes | 78c | 16.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 January 26-1?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 January 26-1?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 January 26-1?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 January 26-1?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 January 26-1?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 January 26-1?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 January 26-1?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 January 26-1?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 26-1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.