TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 26-1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$468,421
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$436,950

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $468,421 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xef72…3c45backed Yes8c34,357$2,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,685.124528.9%13 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb63a…4064backed No78c18,188$14,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,113.2717231.4%54 W · 118 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes29c14,812$4,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,455.4687828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x421b…ac12backed No14c9,117$1,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,321.854047.5%19 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes7c7,109$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,609.1714213.4%19 W · 123 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+58.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed No80c6,702$5,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,359.7522550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes9c6,345$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,785.1428021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0ec…fb2ebacked No0c6,169$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-54.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf8b…e543backed Yes20c5,224$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,173.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+397.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0154…15a8backed Yes50c4,926$2,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,451.133953.8%21 W · 18 L+6.2wins+0.16per pick38cpaid-2.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x222f…8e2dbacked Yes16c4,493$716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,776.153100%3 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+301.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa5bf…8763backed Yes8c4,446$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,089.464231%13 W · 29 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick21cpaid+55.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f77…21bfbacked Yes19c4,278$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,478.072100%2 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+987.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4c03…604ebacked No29c4,220$1,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,227.0517229.7%51 W · 121 L-13.0wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-47.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd44c…1223backed Yes62c4,170$2,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,583.91366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.42per pick25cpaid+261.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe14b…1ad3backed No47c4,000$1,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8803633.3%12 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x00b9…4ca6backed Yes65c3,349$2,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,161.24650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c3,303$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.561,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41ae…51e0backed Yes6c3,000$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,821.9914019.3%27 W · 113 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+119.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x253b…0ae7backed Yes8c2,573$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,362.416816.2%11 W · 57 L+8.3wins+0.12per pick4cpaid+273.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf575…0791backed Yes12c2,443$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,142.981637.5%6 W · 10 L+4.0wins+0.25per pick13cpaid+315.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes11c2,411$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,152.4523411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ea7…bcd9backed Yes69c2,300$1,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7131233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-31.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc686…5a55backed Yes7c2,300$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1391855.6%10 W · 8 L+7.2wins+0.40per pick15cpaid+556.8%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x1a3f…7112backed Yes7c1,801$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,679.792512%3 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6474…3a4ebacked Yes33c1,700$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,140.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+51.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes6c1,539$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,439.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.94per pick6cpaid+1,439.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa1b…63fdbacked No17c1,500$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd14…1c17backed Yes34c1,272$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$837.345954.2%32 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044d…71fabacked Yes8c1,201$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,101.07757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick24cpaid+294%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf114…8003backed Yes20c1,188$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$950.018521.2%18 W · 67 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3761…bb47backed Yes9c1,156$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.136615.2%10 W · 56 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+27.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x989c…69f4backed No70c1,000$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702.977330.1%22 W · 51 L-18.5wins-0.25per pick55cpaid-54.8%equal weight29-0.19 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes7c1,000$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9292825%7 W · 21 L+4.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+270.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4120…153dbacked Yes3c999.99$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967.99425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid+681.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabe5…a37bbacked Yes45c988.65$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.581450%7 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3a5…83dbbacked Yes42c975.6$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.83542.9%15 W · 20 L+6.4wins+0.18per pick24cpaid+109.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3d16…8ac4backed Yes44c947.62$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.232634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes3c937.47$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$912.474754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfbb…dc2bbacked No38c900$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.32020%4 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-50.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes8c883.61$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816.752999.4%28 W · 271 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c839.96$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$803.026785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb646…0cf9backed Yes35c782.35$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.571833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99c4…6361backed No17c750$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.5812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cb7…93c7backed No63c721.36$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.987950.6%40 W · 39 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes26c704.41$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.864526.7%12 W · 33 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick15cpaid+197.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x54ce…31fcbacked No71c664.46$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.2140%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x716a…5861backed Yes9c647.01$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.01366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick29cpaid+465.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b9b…7e7cbacked Yes7c646.23$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.865444.4%24 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4829…97ebbacked Yes16c645.6$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.782445.8%11 W · 13 L+5.0wins+0.21per pick25cpaid+346.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xde21…7edbbacked Yes53c600$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2821668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+49.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes9c600$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.92417.1%17 W · 224 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+47.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60e8…4001backed Yes18c561.8$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.82334.8%8 W · 15 L+4.5wins+0.19per pick15cpaid+130.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6891…949fbacked No70c541.54$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.77366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick75cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd517…5f34backed Yes41c518.62$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.014100%4 W · 0 L+2.8wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+236.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes7c509.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.733998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No35c507.51$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.0864812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xace5…4457backed Yes48c500$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.521741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick31cpaid-14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdfbd…1782backed Yes2c500$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.5714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick1cpaid+580.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes4c499.06$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.216221%13 W · 49 L+10.4wins+0.17per pick4cpaid+300.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x36bb…4eeabacked Yes21c433.85$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.51225%3 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+40.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64c5…feeabacked No68c426.1$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.284955.1%27 W · 22 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-23.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9416…5a15backed Yes24c409.84$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.84862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick36cpaid+152.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes19c394.85$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.76320.6%13 W · 50 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick12cpaid+62.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xca96…e679backed Yes12c392.28$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.28475%3 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.66per pick9cpaid+641.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x61e9…0e4cbacked No57c383$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.73250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf15…c689backed Yes18c378.99$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.99771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.36per pick36cpaid+165.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes58c371.42$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.6114340.6%58 W · 85 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd82f…75ffbacked Yes15c365.1$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.11241.7%5 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.22per pick20cpaid+158.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6e8b…e99fbacked No45c335.08$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.797642.1%32 W · 44 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1c0…9c16backed Yes6c300$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2821100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.94per pick6cpaid+1,566.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes29c293.71$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.7134848.6%169 W · 179 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53b5…d768backed Yes5c280.61$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.722321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa19…1245backed Yes11c279.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.66666.7%4 W · 2 L+3.5wins+0.58per pick9cpaid+471.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9e35…b0a3backed Yes21c245.14$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.92634.6%9 W · 17 L+5.1wins+0.20per pick15cpaid+125%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed No35c240.84$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.371010%1 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-55.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x459a…7948backed No60c231.78$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.5240%0 W · 4 L-2.8wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4896…fe47backed Yes7c227.92$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.223850%19 W · 19 L+8.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+124.8%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x6da5…15babacked Yes44c225.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+125.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48eb…4addbacked Yes7c211.74$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.741090%9 W · 1 L+6.1wins+0.61per pick29cpaid+431.9%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x2cb0…27f8backed Yes6c200$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1881100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.94per pick6cpaid+1,566.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60c1…01ccbacked No57c200$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.42218.2%4 W · 18 L-3.7wins-0.17per pick35cpaid-31.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1214…cf28backed Yes9c200$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1832556%14 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+59.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0688…7a12backed No12c200$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.44650%23 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb60e…3574backed Yes50c200$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.84658.7%27 W · 19 L+5.3wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+35.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x72a1…026dbacked Yes42c200$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1162653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5912…2fe0backed Yes55c180.51$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.51450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+46.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked Yes44c173.63$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.626274.4%195 W · 67 L+45.7wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+31.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x0424…cba8backed Yes38c167.41$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.31560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick31cpaid+55.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5324…cc22backed Yes60c166.94$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.94683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.47per pick36cpaid+165.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1aa1…d4c8backed No17c149.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3bf…e70fbacked Yes12c145.79$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.441637.5%6 W · 10 L+4.4wins+0.27per pick10cpaid+549.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb0fe…6382backed Yes15c140$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+586.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x30b2…b012backed Yes16c139$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+518.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb65…3115backed Yes7c138$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.72520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid+168.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc173…6342backed Yes15c131$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+549.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6be6…5240backed Yes16c123$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+528.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8adb…e1fdbacked Yes12c120.04$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.54742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick21cpaid+120%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x60f1…cb3ebacked Yes48c120$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6212259.8%73 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe52d…3728backed No58c120$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.62254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+28.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.