Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5ff3dbf03cd1adbe6bc1fa894f65fe8a3762ace994a21b02ef0fdbc78369725
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $265,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $251,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $265,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 192 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb810…8919backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 70c | 12,543$8,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,760.74 | 186 | 16.1%30 W · 156 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 39c | 10,451$4,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,379.74 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78cb…f366backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 28c | 9,560$2,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,629.54 | 532 | 22.7%121 W · 411 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…6558backed Yes | 80c | 7,919$6,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,334.53 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 5,549$2,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,570.75 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b8…1305backed No | 55c | 5,471$2,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,478.16 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedc1…0a06backed No | 30c | 5,401$1,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,761.3 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked No | 49c | 4,629$2,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,349.84 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 63c | 4,499$2,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,834.57 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked No | 12c | 4,471$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,935.3 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes | 80c | 4,128$3,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,294.75 | 199 | 9%18 W · 181 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +174.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 80c | 4,033$3,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,224.59 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes | 56c | 3,786$2,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,104.86 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 30c | 3,336$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,348.48 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 20c | 3,278$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.22 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 68c | 3,205$2,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,173.51 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 77c | 2,739$2,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,111.51 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 67c | 2,630$1,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,769.95 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 15c | 2,621$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.53 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 78c | 2,601$2,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,017 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 36c | 2,435$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,564.46 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed No | 17c | 2,330$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,932.97 | 876 | 18.4%161 W · 715 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 20c | 2,219$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.56 | 270 | 24.4%66 W · 204 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 2c | 2,200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,060 | 8.4%89 W · 971 L | +29.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 42c | 2,072$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,211.95 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…4ae3backed No | 2c | 1,920$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,885.31 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +152.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ab…2bcfbacked Yes | 50c | 1,913$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.45 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 32c | 1,885$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.31 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked No | 22c | 1,817$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,425.14 | 994 | 10.6%105 W · 889 L | -30.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 25c | 1,675$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,254.1 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed No | 13c | 1,646$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,432.81 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed No | 19c | 1,544$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250.79 | 574 | 20.9%120 W · 454 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 22c | 1,502$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,167.06 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ab…273dbacked Yes | 70c | 1,500$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.63 | 204 | 32.4%66 W · 138 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 48c | 1,453$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.99 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5285…1cc5backed Yes | 74c | 1,380$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.16 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed No | 19c | 1,285$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,043.59 | 879 | 17.2%151 W · 728 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d3…8c21backed Yes | 2c | 1,253$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 57c | 1,201$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.5 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 27c | 1,144$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.38 | 563 | 29.8%168 W · 395 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed No | 42c | 1,132$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.14 | 161 | 22.4%36 W · 125 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 28c | 1,120$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.02 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 2c | 1,100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 40c | 1,031$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.32 | 126 | 14.3%18 W · 108 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf9…b9ccbacked Yes | 5c | 1,031$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 964.09$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.7 | 386 | 48.2%186 W · 200 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…8345backed Yes | 45c | 930.83$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.11 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…0190backed No | 22c | 819.22$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.27 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes | 60c | 810.66$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.07 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +18.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5763…1c22backed Yes | 72c | 741.33$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.87 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea40…2698backed No | 17c | 730.72$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.04 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 18c | 716.11$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.54 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa43e…ec90backed Yes | 15c | 666.55$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.88 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 30c | 661.92$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.09 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 9c | 659.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.76 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 33c | 638.6$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.76 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x770a…9e6dbacked Yes | 45c | 600.31$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.25 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe133…6994backed Yes | 71c | 589.72$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.76 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa47f…cf75backed Yes | 14c | 563.82$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 149 | 24.2%36 W · 113 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 71c | 545.63$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.44 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed No | 62c | 527.93$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.36 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 69c | 524.81$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.89 | 210 | 63.3%133 W · 77 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 38c | 500$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.9 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x544a…dbe1backed No | 6c | 500$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.6 | 118 | 31.4%37 W · 81 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7741…23e6backed No | 40c | 495.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.32 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 71c | 439.08$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.62 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aed…0b9dbacked Yes | 69c | 429.32$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.78 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391f…cf8dbacked Yes | 61c | 401.86$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.56 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…645cbacked Yes | 61c | 345$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.3 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 11c | 333$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 105 | 10.5%11 W · 94 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 329.32$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.06 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x984f…ba69backed Yes | 30c | 325$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.57 | 158 | 17.7%28 W · 130 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 13c | 324.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 405 | 19.8%80 W · 325 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0086…1b8cbacked No | 62c | 321.08$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.08 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +145.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 303.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 395 | 18.7%74 W · 321 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xed32…df4abacked Yes | 80c | 301.38$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.81 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 13c | 300$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 62c | 299.91$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.92 | 413 | 10.7%44 W · 369 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14a6…cca7backed Yes | 69c | 292.87$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.43 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 70c | 274.3$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.22 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 33c | 267$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.89 | 96 | 54.2%52 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81db…48f0backed No | 14c | 262.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +591.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5f…55a8backed No | 6c | 250.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +125.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes | 32c | 250$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 207 | 23.7%49 W · 158 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x503a…860abacked Yes | 64c | 232.71$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 45c | 230.67$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.02 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes | 39c | 229.23$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.36 | 185 | 11.4%21 W · 164 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca6…0ae3backed No | 13c | 224.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.77 | 189 | 39.2%74 W · 115 L | +15.8wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8409…753dbacked No | 28c | 210.62$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.52 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 31c | 207.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.08 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d6…e59ebacked Yes | 53c | 205.88$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.44 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad0c…df3cbacked No | 41c | 200$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.4 | 280 | 34.3%96 W · 184 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc2…9a95backed Yes | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 48c | 182.83$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.09 | 183 | 58.5%107 W · 76 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd97f…7813backed Yes | 73c | 181.5$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.08 | 159 | 28.3%45 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 66c | 168$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.88 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb419…cb01backed Yes | 60c | 162.9$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.87 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc925…6d24backed Yes | 48c | 160.05$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.87 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.