Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaed742a1a5b82df2afb064ca51061b2495c0678e751469be6b723ac2b084bcd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $240,272
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $203,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $240,272 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 19c | 12,537$2,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,123.22 | 186 | 16.1%30 W · 156 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ef…ffe1backed No | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 67c | 10,747$7,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,220.99 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 4c | 8,125$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,789.89 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 13c | 7,924$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,893.17 | 994 | 10.6%105 W · 889 L | -30.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 41c | 7,312$3,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,297.12 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…6558backed Yes | 43c | 6,373$2,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,623.58 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 20c | 6,307$1,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,049.49 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 16c | 6,283$1,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,271.04 | 563 | 29.8%168 W · 395 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 5,499$2,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,961.36 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes | 10c | 5,244$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,728.74 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5f…55a8backed No | 78c | 4,897$3,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,838.14 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +125.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 6c | 4,439$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,172.48 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 39c | 4,376$1,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,663.48 | 532 | 22.7%121 W · 411 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5285…1cc5backed Yes | 26c | 3,890$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,886.93 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 13c | 3,342$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,893.87 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 46c | 3,319$1,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,512.8 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 21c | 2,667$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,110.02 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes | 21c | 2,631$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,066.95 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa980…583ebacked Yes | 41c | 2,533$1,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,501.85 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 12c | 2,458$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,170.9 | 1,060 | 8.4%89 W · 971 L | +29.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes | 8c | 2,233$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,063.67 | 185 | 11.4%21 W · 164 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 20c | 2,158$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,720.62 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…8983backed Yes | 8c | 2,083$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,915.15 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | +11.8wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,866.61 | 245 | 24.9%61 W · 184 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,971 | 199 | 9%18 W · 181 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +174.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 11c | 1,813$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,619 | 879 | 17.2%151 W · 728 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 74c | 1,768$1,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,305.35 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,460.67 | 797 | 11.3%90 W · 707 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 10c | 1,494$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,344.08 | 876 | 18.4%161 W · 715 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…8ff9backed Yes | 77c | 1,382$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.7 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 8c | 1,325$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,223.92 | 118 | 9.3%11 W · 107 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 3c | 1,282$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,239.6 | 130 | 8.5%11 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed No | 18c | 1,211$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.91 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +18.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 31c | 1,200$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.9 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 13c | 1,198$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.5 | 574 | 20.9%120 W · 454 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 17c | 1,095$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.54 | 210 | 63.3%133 W · 77 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 1,056$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.49 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…4ae3backed Yes | 21c | 1,010$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.92 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +152.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 19c | 1,007$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.48 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…e714backed Yes | 70c | 1,000$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296 | 83 | 24.1%20 W · 63 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 28c | 926.81$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.52 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 18c | 917.22$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.23 | 270 | 24.4%66 W · 204 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 6c | 889.59$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.57 | 395 | 18.7%74 W · 321 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 3c | 856.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.62 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 800.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.15 | 2,160 | 3.9%85 W · 2,075 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 1c | 759.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.41 | 1,190 | 8.7%104 W · 1,086 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc78b…2ca5backed Yes | 13c | 758.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.59 | 101 | 25.7%26 W · 75 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 25c | 729.48$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.32 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 49c | 657.14$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.46 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 15c | 648$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549 | 126 | 14.3%18 W · 108 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc622…e1a4backed Yes | 14c | 642.78$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.92 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…5d51backed Yes | 11c | 626.18$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.23 | 313 | 4.8%15 W · 298 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes | 19c | 599.97$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.98 | 207 | 23.7%49 W · 158 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x408a…ac7fbacked Yes | 29c | 595.76$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.3 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 71c | 588.71$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.02 | 405 | 19.8%80 W · 325 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked No | 68c | 568.26$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.06 | 630 | 21.7%137 W · 493 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb816…9e90backed Yes | 3c | 559$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.42 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 9c | 540.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.24 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7de…537abacked Yes | 45c | 445.4$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.4 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823b…2274backed Yes | 25c | 443.83$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.83 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 13c | 441.42$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.31 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes | 23c | 417.39$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.39 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea40…2698backed Yes | 11c | 394.15$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.19 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aed…0b9dbacked Yes | 25c | 392.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.34 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 72c | 363.28$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.41 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47e4…28b8backed Yes | 6c | 360.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.52 | 83 | 16.9%14 W · 69 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 15c | 323.98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.86 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 5c | 323.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.88 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 19c | 320.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.97 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff0…0a65backed Yes | 5c | 304.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,940.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 12c | 300$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263 | 413 | 10.7%44 W · 369 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279 | 552 | 5.6%31 W · 521 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 20c | 286.14$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.17 | 350 | 24%84 W · 266 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 74c | 277.65$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.28 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes | 27c | 272.93$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.4 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 11c | 250$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.5 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 64c | 249.2$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.55 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x770a…9e6dbacked Yes | 27c | 238.09$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.81 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e88…697dbacked Yes | 9c | 230.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.21 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 78c | 207.93$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.73 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac5f…d808backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…3c89backed Yes | 21c | 196.42$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.42 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bf…66c7backed Yes | 18c | 187$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.34 | 96 | 28.1%27 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa47f…cf75backed Yes | 37c | 185.27$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.27 | 149 | 24.2%36 W · 113 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7111…7c21backed Yes | 66c | 181.54$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.54 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes | 9c | 179.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.78 | 144 | 27.1%39 W · 105 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68ff…ec42backed Yes | 8c | 178.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.71 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 16c | 167.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524b…a34dbacked Yes | 18c | 167.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.37 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked Yes | 14c | 164.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.1 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes | 9c | 162.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.97 | 558 | 8.2%46 W · 512 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 26c | 161.72$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.11 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd850…e26cbacked No | 66c | 151.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd97f…7813backed Yes | 25c | 148.14$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.63 | 159 | 28.3%45 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d6…e59ebacked Yes | 38c | 147.84$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.05 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339d…06dabacked Yes | 10c | 142.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.48 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 20c | 135.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14a6…cca7backed Yes | 25c | 122.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.57 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes | 77c | 120.59$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 499 | 19%95 W · 404 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.