TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$240,272
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$203,899

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $240,272 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes19c12,537$2,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,123.2218616.1%30 W · 156 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28ef…ffe1backed No0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+26.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No67c10,747$7,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,220.9920857.2%119 W · 89 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes4c8,125$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,789.8953817.3%93 W · 445 L-2.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes13c7,924$1,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,893.1799410.6%105 W · 889 L-30.0wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes41c7,312$3,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,297.1222325.1%56 W · 167 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-45.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99a6…6558backed Yes43c6,373$2,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,623.587337%27 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes20c6,307$1,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,049.491,7807.4%132 W · 1,648 L-23.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes16c6,283$1,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,271.0456329.8%168 W · 395 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes46c5,499$2,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,961.3676821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes10c5,244$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,728.7414037.1%52 W · 88 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-20.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d5f…55a8backed No78c4,897$3,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,838.141050%5 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+125.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes6c4,439$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,172.4854122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes39c4,376$1,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,663.4853222.7%121 W · 411 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5285…1cc5backed Yes26c3,890$1,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,886.932725.9%7 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-28.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8288…5519backed Yes13c3,342$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,893.8715929.6%47 W · 112 L+0.5wins0.00per pick29cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No46c3,319$1,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,512.810556.2%59 W · 46 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes21c2,667$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,110.0227417.5%48 W · 226 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes21c2,631$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,066.9532613.8%45 W · 281 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-60.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa980…583ebacked Yes41c2,533$1,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,501.854337.2%16 W · 27 L+4.9wins+0.11per pick26cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes12c2,458$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,170.91,0608.4%89 W · 971 L+29.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes8c2,233$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,063.6718511.4%21 W · 164 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-18.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes20c2,158$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,720.6257222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b05…8983backed Yes8c2,083$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,915.1512421.8%27 W · 97 L+11.8wins+0.10per pick12cpaid+49.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes7c2,000$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,866.6124524.9%61 W · 184 L-13.8wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-45%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes1c2,000$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9711999%18 W · 181 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+174.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes11c1,813$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,61987917.2%151 W · 728 L+2.2wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No74c1,768$1,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,305.3510143.6%44 W · 57 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes3c1,500$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,460.6779711.3%90 W · 707 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+33.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes10c1,494$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,344.0887618.4%161 W · 715 L+9.5wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf452…8ff9backed Yes77c1,382$1,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.715128.5%43 W · 108 L+0.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid+21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes8c1,325$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,223.921189.3%11 W · 107 L-0.5wins0.00per pick10cpaid-45.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes3c1,282$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,239.61308.5%11 W · 119 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+95.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f4f…c2f1backed No18c1,211$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.9114751%75 W · 72 L+18.0wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+29.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes31c1,200$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$829.939723.2%92 W · 305 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes13c1,198$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,045.557420.9%120 W · 454 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No17c1,095$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.5421063.3%133 W · 77 L+22.8wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+30.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No77c1,056$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.4910151.5%52 W · 49 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x12f7…4ae3backed Yes21c1,010$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802.924445.5%20 W · 24 L+6.1wins+0.14per pick32cpaid+152.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes19c1,007$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$813.4823222.4%52 W · 180 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5f5…e714backed Yes70c1,000$704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2968324.1%20 W · 63 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes28c926.81$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663.5242424.5%104 W · 320 L-13.9wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No18c917.22$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.2327024.4%66 W · 204 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No6c889.59$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5739518.7%74 W · 321 L-57.0wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-60.5%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes3c856.47$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$830.6265311%72 W · 581 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c800.53$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$760.152,1603.9%85 W · 2,075 L+5.9wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes1c759.45$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.411,1908.7%104 W · 1,086 L+31.1wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc78b…2ca5backed Yes13c758.59$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$658.5910125.7%26 W · 75 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid+0.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes25c729.48$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.3262539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No49c657.14$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.4616750.3%84 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes15c648$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54912614.3%18 W · 108 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-42.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc622…e1a4backed Yes14c642.78$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.925433.3%18 W · 36 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes11c626.18$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.233134.8%15 W · 298 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes19c599.97$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.9820723.7%49 W · 158 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x408a…ac7fbacked Yes29c595.76$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.36940.6%28 W · 41 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No71c588.71$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.0240519.8%80 W · 325 L-18.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-51.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked No68c568.26$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.0663021.7%137 W · 493 L+2.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-24.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb816…9e90backed Yes3c559$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.426033.3%20 W · 40 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+74.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes9c540.24$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.2446521.3%99 W · 366 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7de…537abacked Yes45c445.4$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.44710.6%5 W · 42 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick13cpaid+93.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x823b…2274backed Yes25c443.83$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.831127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes13c441.42$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.3150828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes23c417.39$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.3913215.9%21 W · 111 L+0.5wins0.00per pick16cpaid+15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea40…2698backed Yes11c394.15$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.194337.2%16 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1aed…0b9dbacked Yes25c392.34$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.348332.5%27 W · 56 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes72c363.28$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.412729.6%8 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-50.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x47e4…28b8backed Yes6c360.25$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.528316.9%14 W · 69 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+79.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes15c323.98$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.8634425.6%88 W · 256 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes5c323.03$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.8843719.7%86 W · 351 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes19c320.85$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.971,04013.7%142 W · 898 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ff0…0a65backed Yes5c304.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.581100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.95per pick5cpaid+1,940.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes12c300$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26341310.7%44 W · 369 L+0.1wins0.00per pick11cpaid+12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes7c300$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2795525.6%31 W · 521 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+42.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes20c286.14$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.1735024%84 W · 266 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No74c277.65$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.282,54513.2%335 W · 2,210 L+4.9wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes27c272.93$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.420735.3%73 W · 134 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…04cebacked Yes11c250$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.511932.8%39 W · 80 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes64c249.2$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.5512542.4%53 W · 72 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x770a…9e6dbacked Yes27c238.09$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.815437%20 W · 34 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e88…697dbacked Yes9c230.61$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.214634.8%16 W · 30 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+28.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes78c207.93$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.7312548%60 W · 65 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac5f…d808backed Yes30c200$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1404623.9%11 W · 35 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+28.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a09…3c89backed Yes21c196.42$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.422740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2bf…66c7backed Yes18c187$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.349628.1%27 W · 69 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa47f…cf75backed Yes37c185.27$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.2714924.2%36 W · 113 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7111…7c21backed Yes66c181.54$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.541844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes9c179.78$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.7814427.1%39 W · 105 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid+17.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x68ff…ec42backed Yes8c178.37$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.719018.9%17 W · 73 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+26.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No16c167.48$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4912542.4%53 W · 72 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x524b…a34dbacked Yes18c167.37$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.376535.4%23 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes14c164.97$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.132917%56 W · 273 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes9c162.7$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.975588.2%46 W · 512 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes26c161.72$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.113240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd850…e26cbacked No66c151.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.991346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd97f…7813backed Yes25c148.14$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.6315928.3%45 W · 114 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1d6…e59ebacked Yes38c147.84$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.051631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x339d…06dabacked Yes10c142.42$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.488123.5%19 W · 62 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2213…492cbacked No20c135.42$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.233557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x14a6…cca7backed Yes25c122.79$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.575738.6%22 W · 35 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes77c120.59$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.849919%95 W · 404 L-1.7wins0.00per pick19cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.