Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8a9299d1766cd142a51b406e3e5a61946facc57f87783f7e265c8b9d56c7ed8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $172,225
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $147,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $172,225 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 165 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 2c | 19,019$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.65 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 14c | 8,904$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,229.85 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc1…0a06backed No | 78c | 5,090$3,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,137.79 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b8…1305backed No | 74c | 4,620$3,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,186.77 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 26c | 4,037$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.56 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 20c | 3,874$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.91 | 192 | 15.6%30 W · 162 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…e714backed No | 78c | 3,810$2,956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.5 | 83 | 24.1%20 W · 63 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 23c | 3,636$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.01 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 24c | 3,060$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.26 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391f…cf8dbacked Yes | 12c | 2,407$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.24 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 15c | 2,113$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.14 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 29c | 2,092$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.89 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 9c | 1,992$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.46 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 18c | 1,715$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.08 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 18c | 1,500$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.94 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 16c | 1,451$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.7 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…0ef2backed Yes | 13c | 1,362$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 2c | 1,355$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 395 | 18.7%74 W · 321 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…6558backed Yes | 18c | 1,325$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.87 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 33c | 1,288$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.48 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 19c | 1,217$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.1 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes | 15c | 1,210$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,198$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.73 | 185 | 11.4%21 W · 164 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed No | 70c | 1,195$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.66 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…cf59backed Yes | 15c | 1,188$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.42 | 107 | 10.3%11 W · 96 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed No | 65c | 1,124$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.44 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +18.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 15c | 1,115$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.7 | 272 | 24.3%66 W · 206 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 19c | 1,101$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked Yes | 26c | 996.5$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.57 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 80c | 986.17$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.23 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d3…8c21backed Yes | 16c | 979.35$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.75 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 24c | 959.53$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.74 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 77c | 958.63$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.63 | 126 | 14.3%18 W · 108 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 23c | 922.21$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.29 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 778.52$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.01 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c0…c100backed Yes | 22c | 739.14$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.93 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes | 12c | 732.84$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.35 | 553 | 5.6%31 W · 522 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5381…1ec5backed No | 75c | 724.38$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.4 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…22ebbacked No | 73c | 710.66$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.01 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 64cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…8ff9backed Yes | 19c | 709.62$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.26 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 78c | 700.12$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.95 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…8983backed No | 72c | 699.99$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | +11.8wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 13c | 668.43$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.24 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 8c | 667.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.56 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed Yes | 20c | 667.96$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.78 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +13.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x823b…2274backed Yes | 19c | 639.21$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked No | 60c | 622.41$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.6 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 615.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.09 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x770a…9e6dbacked Yes | 18c | 600.25$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.92 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 5c | 600$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 7c | 576.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…4cc9backed Yes | 18c | 562.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.64 | 195 | 27.7%54 W · 141 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 26c | 546.84$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.6 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54fb…e7f3backed Yes | 21c | 516.56$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 21c | 500.15$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.72 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 73c | 499.83$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.96 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 80c | 499.76$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.07 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…0190backed Yes | 25c | 493.57$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.63 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 23c | 491.91$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.21 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb614…2a44backed Yes | 21c | 491.64$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 113 | 39.8%45 W · 68 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 32c | 484.81$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.97 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 26c | 468.25$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.64 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes | 13c | 451.14$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.52 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 77c | 438.25$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.23 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58cb…3cd6backed Yes | 15c | 418.35$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.24 | 100 | 24%24 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 7c | 415.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4645…59babacked No | 78c | 400$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…dc7abacked No | 69c | 400$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 17c | 374.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.55 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x984f…ba69backed Yes | 11c | 373.74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.62 | 158 | 17.7%28 W · 130 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…8345backed Yes | 14c | 368.28$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 361.5$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.36 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 24c | 359.38$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.54 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes | 11c | 345.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…645cbacked Yes | 39c | 331.96$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.99 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 13c | 300.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.46 | 345 | 15.9%55 W · 290 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked No | 68c | 300$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.4 | 173 | 35.3%61 W · 112 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad0c…df3cbacked No | 79c | 299.99$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 280 | 34.3%96 W · 184 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked Yes | 13c | 298.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb9…1418backed Yes | 25c | 291.47$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.79 | 259 | 44.4%115 W · 144 L | +10.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 77c | 290$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.42 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3758…5c70backed No | 77c | 284.49$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.41 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe3…6599backed No | 75c | 275.55$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes | 23c | 267.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.39 | 499 | 19%95 W · 404 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe43d…3978backed Yes | 19c | 250$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc622…e1a4backed Yes | 38c | 248.97$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.8 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 21c | 238.03$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 25c | 221.68$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.32 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fb…183bbacked Yes | 27c | 214.78$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 14c | 209.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc2…0208backed Yes | 25c | 208.33$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes | 19c | 199.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 207 | 23.7%49 W · 158 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…eac8backed No | 69c | 199.97$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed32…df4abacked Yes | 19c | 189.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…4ae3backed No | 80c | 184.73$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +152.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaac2…e8cebacked Yes | 37c | 183.19$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.28 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29e7…fbbfbacked Yes | 10c | 181.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 11c | 181.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc011…0a62backed No | 71c | 180.81$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.82 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 18c | 176.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 130 | 8.5%11 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.