TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$168,736
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$66,193

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $168,736 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes0c14,932$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.732009%18 W · 182 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+173%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes0c5,671$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.92785%14 W · 264 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-89.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes3c4,922$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.681,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes6c4,000$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.935718.2%47 W · 524 L+1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes0c3,850$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.51863.8%7 W · 179 L-0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x621e…b532backed Yes11c3,807$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.7580%0 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9d0…542cbacked Yes0c3,350$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9674.5%3 W · 64 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-77.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53bd…5d30backed Yes3c3,340$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.131066.6%7 W · 99 L-4.9wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-79.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1b0…3f04backed Yes13c3,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3906026.7%16 W · 44 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+22.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes1c2,406$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.65224.5%1 W · 21 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick1cpaid+354.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x539e…3ccebacked Yes1c2,038$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3412514.4%18 W · 107 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-39.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes4c1,809$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.0888610.3%91 W · 795 L-4.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-49.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1e5a…935fbacked Yes15c1,602$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.74835.4%17 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-12.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes1c1,546$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.28502%1 W · 49 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+62.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19cc…c4fdbacked Yes21c1,180$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick39cpaid-49.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes14c1,141$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.2670616.4%116 W · 590 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6259…c692backed Yes1c1,100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3120%0 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3030…86aebacked Yes10c1,036$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.0713911.5%16 W · 123 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe583…2d98backed Yes3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3011421.1%24 W · 90 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick17cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes22c951.73$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.0145911.3%52 W · 407 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2eef…eacabacked Yes7c900$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.521429.9%64 W · 150 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb29c…d8b9backed Yes5c846.42$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.322416.7%4 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick12cpaid-15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7ba…d31cbacked Yes10c800$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.84610.9%5 W · 41 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes7c785.14$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.415249.9%52 W · 472 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+64%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes19c769.69$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15046521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No80c703.45$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.6954675.1%410 W · 136 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes15c624.64$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.281,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes18c599.99$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.382714.9%123 W · 704 L+1.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed No80c539.94$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.1513315.8%21 W · 112 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4480…1ff8backed Yes19c537.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe906…ae2bbacked Yes18c500$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90819.9%8 W · 73 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13e1…f309backed Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes19c494.71$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.9932016.6%53 W · 267 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7354…430fbacked No80c494.28$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.8618877.1%145 W · 43 L+12.3wins+0.07per pick71cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5fff…3cf1backed Yes17c450$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.5407.5%3 W · 37 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick9cpaid+52.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ff6…4e36backed Yes20c450$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.511721.4%25 W · 92 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0262…d7b6backed Yes18c444$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.92214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-69.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x859b…d03abacked Yes20c420$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843215.6%5 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes6c420$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.451,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes20c400$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8073215.2%111 W · 621 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes19c400$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.5250913.8%70 W · 439 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c398.11$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.342,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf512…0985backed Yes18c366.16$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.5612117.4%21 W · 100 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes14c344.14$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5119314%27 W · 166 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeabe…d6edbacked Yes9c300$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2713224.2%32 W · 100 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+26.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x219f…dbd9backed Yes17c300$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514513.3%6 W · 39 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+16.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes19c299.38$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6710512.4%13 W · 92 L+0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23c9…3c8bbacked Yes9c250$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.57915.2%12 W · 67 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfea2…c61cbacked Yes5c250$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5911.1%1 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x433e…6be1backed Yes20c247.74$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509024.4%22 W · 68 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes6c230$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.57828.7%68 W · 714 L-1.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x891c…e455backed No78c223.74$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.114100%14 W · 0 L+2.9wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes21c217.57$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6935024%84 W · 266 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked Yes16c213.91$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.684957.1%28 W · 21 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+40.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb5f…1ad5backed Yes20c201.6$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.324918.4%9 W · 40 L-4.4wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-50.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f0e…bf72backed Yes20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-66.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes6c196.36$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1232917%56 W · 273 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9996…bda1backed Yes22c186.11$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4114913.4%20 W · 129 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-36.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2673…5ac9backed Yes16c162.5$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2617824.7%44 W · 134 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cc6…6f68backed Yes19c158.41$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick18cpaid+223.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x255e…a4cdbacked Yes18c150.74$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.73910.3%4 W · 35 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae77…2971backed Yes20c150$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b18…5ac2backed Yes20c150$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308020%16 W · 64 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x623d…87f4backed Yes20c150$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-48.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No77c141.1$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.4551018.2%93 W · 417 L-89.7wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-49.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xde0e…5df8backed Yes19c132$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.082524%6 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c19…b2f5backed Yes20c125$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2512416.1%20 W · 104 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45a6…69f3backed Yes20c121.85$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.375614.3%8 W · 48 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-34%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x73b5…e8a3backed Yes19c121.05$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239218.5%17 W · 75 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed Yes13c120$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.64341.9%18 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xddae…52c4backed Yes11c120$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.270%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes19c118$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.422352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes16c115$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.947150.7%36 W · 35 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6efa…2947backed Yes19c109.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.95226.9%14 W · 38 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes19c109$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.021,00110.5%105 W · 896 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2124873%181 W · 67 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+6.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf18c…18c1backed Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194951%25 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53a9…0ea1backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201020%2 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77dc…1607backed Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213330.3%10 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x254b…232bbacked Yes21c95.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick28cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x984f…ba69backed Yes18c86$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.515817.7%28 W · 130 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c04…6587backed Yes21c57.14$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1247032.6%153 W · 317 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a4d…4352backed No77c56.41$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.974783%39 W · 8 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick74cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9209…b4d5backed Yes19c55$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.459036.7%33 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x48c5…2cb2backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-32.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4eac…ac8bbacked Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick23cpaid-63.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f5e…343cbacked Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106113.1%8 W · 53 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-44.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5bd…94ddbacked Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-50.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d06…b2eabacked Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106744.8%30 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea31…a889backed No78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+98.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x02c9…866ebacked No78c24.87$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.353557.1%20 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked No77c23$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.292045%9 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.26347.6%30 W · 33 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+69.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.16854.4%37 W · 31 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52c6…bb38backed No80c18.75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.752157.1%12 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.