Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58adf0ef4447a484699861166408b875fd1b2a6962f28d451d2fcfefa6e564e5

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 5, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $332,848
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $109,550

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $332,848 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	0c	53,294$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.18	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed Yes	1c	46,278$484 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$483.66	162	22.2%36 W · 126 L	+8.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	0c	29,106$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.18	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	12,424$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.12	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1aab…773bbacked Yes	0c	10,496$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.44	22	0%0 W · 22 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9720…9aebbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	241	14.1%34 W · 207 L	+11.1wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb411…8a7cbacked Yes	1c	6,865$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.41	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53bd…5d30backed Yes	1c	6,375$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.63	106	6.6%7 W · 99 L	-4.9wins	-0.05per pick	11cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	0c	6,145$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.66	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98c4…9f42backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	0c	4,222$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.2	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20d1…fe63backed Yes	0c	3,729$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.19	78	21.8%17 W · 61 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes	3c	2,719$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.46	312	17.9%56 W · 256 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x984f…ba69backed Yes	1c	2,342$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	158	17.7%28 W · 130 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67bf…b296backed Yes	2c	1,036$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	360	18.9%68 W · 292 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb86…dc7bbacked Yes	3c	1,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.04	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+111.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x30cf…704abacked Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	93	48.4%45 W · 48 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes	3c	956.65$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.37	118	9.3%11 W · 107 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1aed…0b9dbacked Yes	2c	913.48$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.13	83	32.5%27 W · 56 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-15%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	1c	898.94$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.95	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2559…460bbacked Yes	1c	780$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.26	264	18.6%49 W · 215 L	+8.7wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bdb…a90dbacked Yes	4c	700$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-2.2wins	-0.13per pick	20cpaid	-89.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x04f5…a10ebacked Yes	5c	636.8$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	77	11.7%9 W · 68 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	625$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.96	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	5c	609.57$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.89	352	12.8%45 W · 307 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f99…ee76backed Yes	2c	564.24$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	23	4.3%1 W · 22 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	11cpaid	-80.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2eef…eacabacked Yes	3c	556.12$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.06	214	29.9%64 W · 150 L	-9.0wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-28%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe53d…146cbacked Yes	3c	511.89$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.07	117	23.1%27 W · 90 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Yes	2c	507.35$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.93	161	10.6%17 W · 144 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x58c0…e64fbacked Yes	2c	501.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.04	91	26.4%24 W · 67 L	+6.0wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	+33.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x159f…4043backed Yes	4c	454.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	87	21.8%19 W · 68 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb36…0d51backed Yes	4c	400$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	69	21.7%15 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	+26%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb1e2…666dbacked Yes	3c	380$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.86	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	+2.9wins	+0.07per pick	5cpaid	+102.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x13fa…052abacked Yes	5c	220.2$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	107	30.8%33 W · 74 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event