Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbaddc1477b65d009fc956518c9fcf1e62faac150b79b6b710b5a200b00a1a990

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 7, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $175,440
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $40,102

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $175,440 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1aab…773bbacked Yes	0c	24,704$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.7	22	0%0 W · 22 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes	0c	19,000$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	200	9%18 W · 182 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+173%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9d0…542cbacked Yes	0c	6,500$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.7	67	4.5%3 W · 64 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-77.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	0c	6,038$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	1c	5,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.97	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	3,742$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.62	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	2c	3,208$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.93	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	0c	3,120$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.48	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	3,019$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.52	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	1c	2,577$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.08	407	19.7%80 W · 327 L	-18.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes	1c	2,062$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.6	50	2%1 W · 49 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+62.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	2c	1,700$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	3c	1,507$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.93	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2eef…eacabacked Yes	1c	1,155$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.01	214	29.9%64 W · 150 L	-9.0wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-28%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb353…bd7fbacked Yes	4c	1,138$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.04	119	4.2%5 W · 114 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	7c	1,058$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.06	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes	3c	1,001$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.43	217	6%13 W · 204 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	9c	1,000$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.12	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3030…86aebacked Yes	7c	907.89$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.92	139	11.5%16 W · 123 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	9c	901.81$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.24	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	5c	869.98$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.12	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7ba…d31cbacked Yes	4c	799.51$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	46	10.9%5 W · 41 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	5c	727.63$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.86	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cc8…9e87backed Yes	2c	700$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	32	18.8%6 W · 26 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+90.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1b0…3f04backed Yes	5c	674.38$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.72	60	26.7%16 W · 44 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	+22.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked Yes	4c	651$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.55	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.14per pick	43cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe906…ae2bbacked Yes	6c	500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	81	9.9%8 W · 73 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fff…3cf1backed Yes	6c	450.32$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.02	40	7.5%3 W · 37 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes	6c	438.91$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.35	193	14%27 W · 166 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	6c	399.99$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	5c	312.19$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.26	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes	8c	300$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	105	12.4%13 W · 92 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x219f…dbd9backed Yes	7c	300$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	8c	219$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.49	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	9c	209.4$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.85	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x984f…ba69backed Yes	7c	175$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	158	17.7%28 W · 130 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd364…8f8bbacked Yes	6c	170$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	20	15%3 W · 17 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x255e…a4cdbacked Yes	7c	156.88$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	39	10.3%4 W · 35 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd80…4f46backed Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	74	20.3%15 W · 59 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event