Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf13c9dd1019e5ba6b8fb8bcb2ead10ae14daa591a28896fdf748ec5d34c7ca80

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 7, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $220,298
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $138,117

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $220,298 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes	0c	11,000$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.5	200	9%18 W · 182 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+173%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae8e…afc1backed Yes	1c	9,358$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.49	83	7.2%6 W · 77 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	3cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x20d1…fe63backed Yes	2c	9,337$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.62	78	21.8%17 W · 61 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	9,200$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.16	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes	1c	8,750$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	1cpaid	+354.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	0c	6,743$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.54	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	5c	5,198$284 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$284.28	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9d0…542cbacked Yes	0c	4,350$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.3	67	4.5%3 W · 64 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-77.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	13c	3,500$465 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$465	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	3,459$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.45	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	9c	2,332$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.52	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x53bd…5d30backed Yes	6c	2,271$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.92	106	6.6%7 W · 99 L	-4.9wins	-0.05per pick	11cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	1c	1,889$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.22	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	1c	1,850$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed Yes	3c	1,758$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.33	162	22.2%36 W · 126 L	+8.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	10c	1,704$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.9	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	1,701$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3d73…75a0backed Yes	23c	1,374$322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$322.17	65	29.2%19 W · 46 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	20c	1,372$278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$278.27	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	20c	1,313$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260.33	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…4cc5backed Yes	1c	1,006$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	26	3.8%1 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-80.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	16c	950$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.98	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	13c	875.85$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.2	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	17c	836.88$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.79	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x621e…b532backed Yes	22c	796.64$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.26	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes	2c	743.8$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.58	50	2%1 W · 49 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+62.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	3c	678.92$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.2	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes	4c	650.42$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.09	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes	16c	641.59$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.58	278	20.9%58 W · 220 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ff6…4e36backed Yes	19c	600.29$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.37	117	21.4%25 W · 92 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	9c	590.61$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.71	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked Yes	23c	562.47$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.37	49	57.1%28 W · 21 L	+4.3wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+40.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa661…4c55backed Yes	7c	535.69$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.5	132	15.9%21 W · 111 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-45.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	80c	534.8$428 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.96	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc1f4…2a00backed Yes	23c	532.1$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe53d…146cbacked Yes	3c	511.95$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.96	117	23.1%27 W · 90 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9514…9017backed Yes	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	30	26.7%8 W · 22 L	+1.7wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6259…c692backed Yes	6c	500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1dc…09c2backed Yes	16c	499.99$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	129	14%18 W · 111 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe906…ae2bbacked Yes	17c	499.99$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	81	9.9%8 W · 73 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	19c	499.97$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	483.77$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.97	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25f2…0822backed Yes	11c	458.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	74	13.5%10 W · 64 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5fff…3cf1backed Yes	15c	449.99$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.5	40	7.5%3 W · 37 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	14c	410$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.3	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e0f…c18cbacked Yes	4c	400$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	101	5%5 W · 96 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-67.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7ba…d31cbacked Yes	18c	400$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	46	10.9%5 W · 41 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	15c	399.99$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	9c	399.97$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.94	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ee9…7d37backed Yes	21c	333.33$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	109	24.8%27 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+38.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x548a…e37abacked Yes	13c	307.69$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	77	16.9%13 W · 64 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5312…9e9bbacked Yes	5c	306$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.92	53	22.6%12 W · 41 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+40.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x544e…86dcbacked Yes	6c	300$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	50	12%6 W · 44 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes	17c	300$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	105	12.4%13 W · 92 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes	20c	300$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	312	17.9%56 W · 256 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeabe…d6edbacked Yes	21c	300$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	132	24.2%32 W · 100 L	+5.4wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x219f…dbd9backed Yes	9c	299.99$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	18c	285$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.46	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x984f…ba69backed Yes	20c	276.36$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	158	17.7%28 W · 130 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3030…86aebacked Yes	9c	274.43$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.7	139	11.5%16 W · 123 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde69…9646backed Yes	9c	268.64$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	24cpaid	+49.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0898…9a5bbacked Yes	20c	256.47$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.04	98	15.3%15 W · 83 L	-5.1wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-29%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4efc…dd07backed Yes	15c	254.32$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.15	61	11.5%7 W · 54 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfea2…c61cbacked Yes	10c	250$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes	21c	240.37$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.25	350	24%84 W · 266 L	-10.5wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e29…eba9backed Yes	16c	234.81$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.57	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.8wins	+0.09per pick	25cpaid	+80.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x433e…6be1backed Yes	17c	232.83$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.58	90	24.4%22 W · 68 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes	9c	232.06$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.02	193	14%27 W · 166 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ced…2c7ebacked Yes	16c	225$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	96	14.6%14 W · 82 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes	23c	210.55$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.43	105	47.6%50 W · 55 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	12c	210$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x859b…d03abacked Yes	21c	208.22$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.73	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	19c	200$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb1a6…9fc1backed Yes	16c	200$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	40	30%12 W · 28 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41be…5f38backed Yes	20c	199.99$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	69	21.7%15 W · 54 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x45a6…69f3backed Yes	17c	199.99$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	56	14.3%8 W · 48 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-34%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x539e…3ccebacked Yes	7c	195.05$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.67	125	14.4%18 W · 107 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	16c	190$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.4	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9996…bda1backed Yes	16c	188.61$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	149	13.4%20 W · 129 L	-9.6wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed Yes	20c	187.7$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.29	101	44.6%45 W · 56 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x85f0…62ebbacked Yes	20c	178.35$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.67	101	14.9%15 W · 86 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+47.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd364…8f8bbacked Yes	15c	170$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	20	15%3 W · 17 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1aed…0b9dbacked Yes	24c	166.67$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	83	32.5%27 W · 56 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-15%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba75…837fbacked Yes	22c	160.45$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.7	27	22.2%6 W · 21 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x491e…3489backed Yes	15c	155$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.4	75	25.3%19 W · 56 L	+4.0wins	+0.05per pick	20cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c04…6587backed Yes	20c	153.5$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	470	32.6%153 W · 317 L	+13.5wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed No	76c	150$114 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes	16c	141.31$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.15	316	24.7%78 W · 238 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No	80c	133.3$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.83	71	50.7%36 W · 35 L	+3.7wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9811…95cfbacked Yes	19c	130.25$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	15	40%6 W · 9 L	+2.1wins	+0.14per pick	26cpaid	+34.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x19e5…126bbacked Yes	23c	120$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6efa…2947backed Yes	20c	110.02$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.12	52	26.9%14 W · 38 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf512…0985backed Yes	22c	101.07$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.41	121	17.4%21 W · 100 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	78c	100$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xad0c…df3cbacked No	79c	100$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21	280	34.3%96 W · 184 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf456…91dabacked Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	24cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9bd…be92backed Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	17cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77dc…1607backed Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	33	30.3%10 W · 23 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9542…9ed4backed Yes	17c	99.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.20per pick	13cpaid	+158.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6c4…20ffbacked Yes	17c	99.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.9wins	+0.12per pick	16cpaid	+46%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event