Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe333d0057c7583097c4a57599ef30d2d0c20a1eb5237e348f82f3cf334655ba9

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 7, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $196,442
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $118,894

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $196,442 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes	0c	7,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	200	9%18 W · 182 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+173%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9d0…542cbacked Yes	0c	6,150$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	67	4.5%3 W · 64 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-77.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1b0…3f04backed Yes	3c	5,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	60	26.7%16 W · 44 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	+22.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	4c	4,969$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.55	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	0c	4,833$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.32	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	0c	4,150$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	8c	4,000$335 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$334.71	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	0c	3,613$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.21	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes	1c	3,031$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.85	50	2%1 W · 49 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+62.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae8e…afc1backed Yes	2c	2,924$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.97	83	7.2%6 W · 77 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	3cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d88…1d65backed Yes	21c	2,436$503 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$502.91	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x53bd…5d30backed Yes	4c	1,992$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.91	106	6.6%7 W · 99 L	-4.9wins	-0.05per pick	11cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	1,972$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.25	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	6c	1,728$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.43	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes	1c	1,647$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.62	424	24.5%104 W · 320 L	-13.9wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	20c	1,360$278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$278.33	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x621e…b532backed Yes	16c	1,120$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.2	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	3c	1,016$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.71	217	32.3%70 W · 147 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	20c	951$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.69	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb29c…d8b9backed Yes	8c	868.28$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.46	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	20c	800$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2eef…eacabacked Yes	10c	800$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77	214	29.9%64 W · 150 L	-9.0wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-28%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	18c	739.99$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.5	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58a5…ec93backed No	80c	682$545 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$136.59	32	84.4%27 W · 5 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	80cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3030…86aebacked Yes	11c	656.3$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	139	11.5%16 W · 123 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes	21c	615.67$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.6	278	20.9%58 W · 220 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed No	79c	606.49$479 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.15	133	15.8%21 W · 112 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	19c	552.51$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.95	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4480…1ff8backed Yes	19c	534.51$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9def…3684backed Yes	11c	523.37$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.57	43	27.9%12 W · 31 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	3c	521.66$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.82	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	80c	517.03$414 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103.41	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe906…ae2bbacked Yes	19c	500$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	81	9.9%8 W · 73 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e0f…c18cbacked Yes	3c	500$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	101	5%5 W · 96 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-67.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	20c	500$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	9c	484.01$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.56	407	19.7%80 W · 327 L	-18.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c43…6609backed Yes	9c	474.6$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.22	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.32per pick	18cpaid	+82.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x25f2…0822backed Yes	11c	458.72$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.24	74	13.5%10 W · 64 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ff6…4e36backed Yes	21c	450$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.6	117	21.4%25 W · 92 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fff…3cf1backed Yes	17c	449.56$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.43	40	7.5%3 W · 37 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa135…6085backed Yes	11c	441.32$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	47	12.8%6 W · 41 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-47%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x41be…5f38backed Yes	13c	419.99$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.2	69	21.7%15 W · 54 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x9996…bda1backed Yes	21c	414.27$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87	149	13.4%20 W · 129 L	-9.6wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0898…9a5bbacked Yes	21c	400$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	98	15.3%15 W · 83 L	-5.1wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-29%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7ba…d31cbacked Yes	20c	400$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	46	10.9%5 W · 41 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd7bd…de07backed Yes	9c	377.55$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.85	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+1.4wins	+0.09per pick	11cpaid	+54.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes	14c	375$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.44	71	50.7%36 W · 35 L	+3.7wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	13c	360.15$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.21	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6259…c692backed Yes	3c	350$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes	13c	330.05$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.12	193	14%27 W · 166 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x984f…ba69backed Yes	21c	312.84$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	158	17.7%28 W · 130 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	7c	302.47$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x544e…86dcbacked Yes	8c	300$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	50	12%6 W · 44 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	79c	300$236 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xeabe…d6edbacked Yes	16c	300$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	132	24.2%32 W · 100 L	+5.4wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d67…1a08backed Yes	22c	300$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	73	28.8%21 W · 52 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	+119.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45a6…69f3backed Yes	20c	300$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	56	14.3%8 W · 48 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-34%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x219f…dbd9backed Yes	19c	300$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes	16c	299.03$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.54	105	12.4%13 W · 92 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	8c	260$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.8	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfea2…c61cbacked Yes	8c	250$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1f5c…7aaabacked Yes	8c	250$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.36per pick	14cpaid	+140.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13e1…f309backed Yes	20c	250$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c11…ef93backed Yes	19c	237.22$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.07	35	22.9%8 W · 27 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x891c…e455backed No	79c	222.36$175 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.71	14	100%14 W · 0 L	+2.9wins	+0.21per pick	79cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes	21c	217.57$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.69	350	24%84 W · 266 L	-10.5wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x433e…6be1backed Yes	23c	217.39$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	90	24.4%22 W · 68 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x859b…d03abacked Yes	23c	207.6$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.75	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	18c	206.97$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.71	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1432…b969backed Yes	20c	200$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	24cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac0f…333bbacked Yes	12c	200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No	78c	200$156 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44	105	47.6%50 W · 55 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7354…430fbacked No	80c	196.93$157 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.36	188	77.1%145 W · 43 L	+12.3wins	+0.07per pick	71cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9811…95cfbacked Yes	13c	191.56$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.74	15	40%6 W · 9 L	+2.1wins	+0.14per pick	26cpaid	+34.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1aed…0b9dbacked Yes	21c	190.48$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	83	32.5%27 W · 56 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-15%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a6…9fc1backed Yes	9c	189.93$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	40	30%12 W · 28 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f0e…bf72backed Yes	23c	173.91$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-66.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd364…8f8bbacked Yes	17c	170$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.9	20	15%3 W · 17 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c19…b2f5backed Yes	20c	155$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.55	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-17%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x623d…87f4backed Yes	20c	150$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-48.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x255e…a4cdbacked Yes	19c	136.22$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	39	10.3%4 W · 35 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fae…ef5fbacked Yes	15c	133.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	50	26%13 W · 37 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	22cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7999…1d86backed No	80c	125$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	89	38.2%34 W · 55 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x73b5…e8a3backed Yes	20c	125$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	92	18.5%17 W · 75 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde0e…5df8backed Yes	20c	125$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	25	24%6 W · 19 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	10c	125$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x516c…981ebacked No	77c	121.06$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.53	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.23per pick	77cpaid	+29.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6efa…2947backed Yes	19c	109.99$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.9	52	26.9%14 W · 38 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed Yes	16c	109.07$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.93	101	44.6%45 W · 56 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9542…9ed4backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.20per pick	13cpaid	+158.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6c4…20ffbacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.9wins	+0.12per pick	16cpaid	+46%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5393…966abacked Yes	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	43	25.6%11 W · 32 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	+112.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0fb7…df24backed Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.6wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa71e…8c27backed Yes	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94ad…defebacked Yes	22c	100$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	37	37.8%14 W · 23 L	+1.8wins	+0.05per pick	33cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77dc…1607backed Yes	22c	100$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	33	30.3%10 W · 23 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd103…9b91backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.20per pick	13cpaid	+158.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1386…d1dfbacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.12per pick	17cpaid	+40.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa933…9171backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.20per pick	13cpaid	+158.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x698f…6ca3backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	33	27.3%9 W · 24 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event