Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45460d36bd51e1615de3372001f261bfc0444da65ca4d241b228cbfbd19111d6

Rebuilt 24 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 7, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $122,043
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $23,875

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,043 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes	0c	20,000$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	200	9%18 W · 182 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+173%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	0c	6,085$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.84	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	0c	5,394$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.33	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes	1c	4,904$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.13	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	1cpaid	+354.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	1c	4,718$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.72	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	4,242$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.86	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	3,748$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.16	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	2,277$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.51	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes	3c	2,067$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.86	217	6%13 W · 204 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	3c	1,584$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.29	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1b0…3f04backed Yes	3c	1,030$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.74	60	26.7%16 W · 44 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	+22.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	2c	973.97$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.72	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	3c	925.93$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0262…d7b6backed Yes	5c	904$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.91	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	9cpaid	-69.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3030…86aebacked Yes	3c	686.23$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.94	139	11.5%16 W · 123 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	5c	588.43$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.17	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	5c	503.13$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.62	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe906…ae2bbacked Yes	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	81	9.9%8 W · 73 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	479.53$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.41	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5fff…3cf1backed Yes	3c	449.97$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	40	7.5%3 W · 37 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7ba…d31cbacked Yes	3c	400$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	46	10.9%5 W · 41 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	4c	387$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.48	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc13…c991backed Yes	5c	305.91$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.91	161	24.2%39 W · 122 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes	5c	280$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.44	105	12.4%13 W · 92 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	272$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x689a…779ebacked Yes	5c	202.27$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.11	225	9.8%22 W · 203 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event