Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7b9641736f20eb34f82598cd102c464263313444ca9b7e7b0c62445e144602b

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 7, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $172,361
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $50,109

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $172,361 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes	0c	24,968$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.9	200	9%18 W · 182 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+173%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02b4…7092backed Yes	0c	17,902$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.9	83	8.4%7 W · 76 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-69.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5016…017dbacked Yes	0c	11,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	0c	5,555$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.78	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	5,205$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.3	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	2c	4,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.92	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	0c	3,206$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.82	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1b0…3f04backed Yes	13c	3,000$390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$390	60	26.7%16 W · 44 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	+22.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes	0c	2,708$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.89	50	2%1 W · 49 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+62.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	2,563$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.86	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6259…c692backed Yes	1c	2,500$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	4c	2,295$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.06	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3030…86aebacked Yes	7c	1,319$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.2	139	11.5%16 W · 123 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	5c	1,310$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.19	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53bd…5d30backed Yes	4c	1,188$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.3	106	6.6%7 W · 99 L	-4.9wins	-0.05per pick	11cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x19cc…c4fdbacked Yes	13c	1,138$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.4wins	-0.23per pick	39cpaid	-49.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	1,126$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes	2c	1,017$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.02	217	6%13 W · 204 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	15c	1,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	14c	952.07$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.25	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	9c	819.98$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.83	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	14c	708.92$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.25	378	30.7%116 W · 262 L	-17.9wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	11c	690.16$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.92	407	19.7%80 W · 327 L	-18.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	8c	680$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.4	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa84…292abacked Yes	7c	660.3$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.31	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0800…ceb0backed Yes	13c	655.72$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.63	114	30.7%35 W · 79 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf512…0985backed Yes	13c	640.2$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.64	121	17.4%21 W · 100 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2eef…eacabacked Yes	3c	614$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.88	214	29.9%64 W · 150 L	-9.0wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-28%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdad6…1ac3backed Yes	3c	531.72$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe906…ae2bbacked Yes	11c	500$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	81	9.9%8 W · 73 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	15c	500$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb353…bd7fbacked Yes	14c	450$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	119	4.2%5 W · 114 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fff…3cf1backed Yes	12c	450$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	40	7.5%3 W · 37 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	12c	447.85$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.6	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes	10c	418.73$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.82	193	14%27 W · 166 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35af…94bbbacked Yes	2c	414.97$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	35	14.3%5 W · 30 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8965…00b7backed Yes	14c	400$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-1.0wins	-0.09per pick	25cpaid	-71.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7ba…d31cbacked Yes	12c	400$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	46	10.9%5 W · 41 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	3c	370$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.02	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfb5f…1ad5backed Yes	14c	357.14$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	49	18.4%9 W · 40 L	-4.4wins	-0.09per pick	27cpaid	-50.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes	11c	337.07$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.08	272	24.3%66 W · 206 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x984f…ba69backed Yes	15c	317.14$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.4	158	17.7%28 W · 130 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x544e…86dcbacked Yes	5c	300$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	50	12%6 W · 44 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	3c	300$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.42	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x219f…dbd9backed Yes	12c	300$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes	15c	299.38$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.91	105	12.4%13 W · 92 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f0e…bf72backed Yes	12c	295.17$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.42	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-66.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddae…52c4backed Yes	10c	280$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.9	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	10c	261.52$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.9	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	13c	257.62$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.49	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	14c	220$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.8	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23c9…3c8bbacked Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	79	15.2%12 W · 67 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+21.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9996…bda1backed Yes	23c	181.47$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	149	13.4%20 W · 129 L	-9.6wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x255e…a4cdbacked Yes	11c	180.18$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	39	10.3%4 W · 35 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd364…8f8bbacked Yes	12c	170$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	20	15%3 W · 17 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x623d…87f4backed Yes	20c	150$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-48.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x25f2…0822backed Yes	14c	142.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	74	13.5%10 W · 64 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	11c	120.4$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.24	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes	15c	120$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	395	18.7%74 W · 321 L	-57.0wins	-0.14per pick	33cpaid	-60.5%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x73b5…e8a3backed Yes	15c	113.33$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	92	18.5%17 W · 75 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	14c	112$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.49	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1f4…2a00backed Yes	14c	108.33$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3333…6bc6backed Yes	16c	101$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.16	25	24%6 W · 19 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ff6…4e36backed Yes	14c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	117	21.4%25 W · 92 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa123…2c1dbacked Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	+68.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad0c…df3cbacked Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	280	34.3%96 W · 184 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x360e…c462backed Yes	14c	92.86$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	42	23.8%10 W · 32 L	+2.9wins	+0.07per pick	17cpaid	+26.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x891c…e455backed No	75c	91.33$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.83	14	100%14 W · 0 L	+2.9wins	+0.21per pick	79cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1075…19c1backed Yes	13c	80$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	57	19.3%11 W · 46 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event