Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fe5b19e190b4c57241653b0316d58b0ad6885c8d336d1d55d6cb3feeed78e6e

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 3, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $205,019
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $88,902

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $205,019 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes	0c	12,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	200	9%18 W · 182 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+173%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	3c	10,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	7,517$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.29	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	7c	5,607$392 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$392.21	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	0c	5,555$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.66	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3030…86aebacked Yes	6c	4,279$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261.23	139	11.5%16 W · 123 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	4,050$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.23	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	2c	3,958$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.01	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	3,644$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.5	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	0c	3,394$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.73	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	4c	3,371$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.46	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes	2c	3,000$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.84	185	11.4%21 W · 164 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes	2c	2,826$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.33	155	7.7%12 W · 143 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	7c	2,698$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.41	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	7c	2,500$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.55	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	2c	2,118$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes	2c	2,027$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.11	217	6%13 W · 204 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd1b0…3f04backed Yes	2c	2,000$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	60	26.7%16 W · 44 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	+22.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	1c	2,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	1,650$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.83	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	4c	1,627$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.3	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	6c	1,300$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.24	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	1,271$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.75	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb9df…d830backed Yes	5c	1,214$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.98	160	17.5%28 W · 132 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes	5c	1,132$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.8	62	16.1%10 W · 52 L	-4.7wins	-0.08per pick	24cpaid	-66.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4595…6dddbacked Yes	2c	999.98$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	3c	952.14$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	3c	917.92$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.02	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	4c	870$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.16	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	2c	855$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.2	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f69…cf59backed Yes	4c	718.43$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.45	107	10.3%11 W · 96 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+74.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb86…dc7bbacked Yes	5c	709.04$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.92	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+111.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdc0…2041backed Yes	4c	699.98$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.5	42	26.2%11 W · 31 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	+91.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes	5c	691.49$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.2	215	21.9%47 W · 168 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb38f…23ddbacked Yes	5c	615.98$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes	3c	560.84$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.72	193	14%27 W · 166 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes	5c	532.65$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.64	122	27%33 W · 89 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cc1…480abacked Yes	6c	476.85$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.76	35	2.9%1 W · 34 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	6cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	3c	469.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.79	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48a3…bfecbacked Yes	3c	450$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.16	55	10.9%6 W · 49 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	5c	430$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.21	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x53bd…5d30backed Yes	4c	421.21$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.1	106	6.6%7 W · 99 L	-4.9wins	-0.05per pick	11cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	5c	404.75$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	4c	400$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.2	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ddd…950bbacked Yes	3c	400$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-1.0wins	-0.09per pick	27cpaid	-76.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	3c	390$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.48	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6293…d14dbacked Yes	4c	312.49$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.1	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-85.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe906…ae2bbacked Yes	7c	300$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	81	9.9%8 W · 73 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7ba…d31cbacked Yes	6c	299.99$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.8	46	10.9%5 W · 41 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes	4c	299.05$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.88	412	20.6%85 W · 327 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91b3…77d6backed Yes	5c	262.17$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.33	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.5wins	+0.19per pick	6cpaid	+338.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa1ef…1faabacked Yes	7c	167.7$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.98	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.8wins	+0.10per pick	15cpaid	+169.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event