TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$414,914
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$221,254

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $414,914 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6864…294bbacked Yes1c35,870$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.5832415.7%51 W · 273 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-62.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes0c21,208$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.651834.4%8 W · 175 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+235.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b63…bdd3backed Yes1c20,315$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.81100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed Yes1c19,735$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7816122.4%36 W · 125 L+8.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+2.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes0c17,452$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.271999%18 W · 181 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+174.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes0c13,084$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.481,1908.7%104 W · 1,086 L+31.1wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes0c11,687$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.56224.5%1 W · 21 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick1cpaid+354.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes1c7,848$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.730317.2%52 W · 251 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes1c7,128$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.3332716.8%55 W · 272 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x913f…c676backed Yes0c6,355$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3510043%43 W · 57 L-7.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-31.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes0c6,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1484616.4%139 W · 707 L+24.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes0c5,900$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.82785%14 W · 264 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-89.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes1c5,703$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5375122.2%167 W · 584 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes0c5,536$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1518511.4%21 W · 164 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-18.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c5,368$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.671,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94d0…1ccdbacked Yes0c5,315$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.05616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x82f7…cdfabacked Yes0c4,767$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7072…69acbacked Yes0c4,423$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.27812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick5cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb98d…5a68backed Yes1c4,212$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27329.4%3 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53bd…5d30backed Yes3c3,914$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.371066.6%7 W · 99 L-4.9wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-79.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes10c3,547$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.1363021.7%137 W · 493 L+2.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-24.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes9c3,509$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.3332016.6%53 W · 267 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes1c3,276$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.61502%1 W · 49 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+62.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes0c3,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135718.2%47 W · 524 L+1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes16c2,814$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.3653222.7%121 W · 411 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e1a…7690backed Yes4c2,805$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.3512421.8%27 W · 97 L-0.6wins0.00per pick22cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb411…8a7cbacked Yes1c2,742$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152611.5%3 W · 23 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick9cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes1c2,536$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9363414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac0f…333bbacked Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes9c2,300$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20733422.2%74 W · 260 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29e7…fbbfbacked Yes1c2,201$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.963417.6%6 W · 28 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick11cpaid+30.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes2c2,147$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0424524.9%61 W · 184 L-13.8wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-45%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes1c2,064$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.073134.8%15 W · 298 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes9c2,004$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.852,54513.2%335 W · 2,210 L+4.9wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes4c1,981$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.51,04013.7%142 W · 898 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes2c1,936$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.371,7807.4%132 W · 1,648 L-23.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb353…bd7fbacked Yes5c1,695$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.511174.3%5 W · 112 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-38.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes1c1,414$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.195525.6%31 W · 521 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+42.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9cc…7262backed Yes1c1,133$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.96757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9720…9aebbacked Yes1c1,022$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1024114.1%34 W · 207 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick9cpaid+17.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0800…ceb0backed Yes12c995.56$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.9611430.7%35 W · 79 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes1c991.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4256817.4%99 W · 469 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes3c919.77$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.461,03611.1%115 W · 921 L+4.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes8c910.75$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.911926.9%32 W · 87 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-50.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes13c836.66$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.8931217.9%56 W · 256 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes11c834.69$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.0431224.7%77 W · 235 L-0.5wins0.00per pick25cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f69…cf59backed Yes2c799.33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9910710.3%11 W · 96 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+74.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes11c760.3$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.3821222.2%47 W · 165 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfee1…746fbacked Yes10c727.74$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.8314022.1%31 W · 109 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+22.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4480…1ff8backed Yes14c726.6$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes11c725.05$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.399410.6%105 W · 889 L-30.0wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes8c605.06$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.45030%15 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+19.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes10c588.86$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4987917.2%151 W · 728 L+2.2wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes11c555.2$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.926216.1%10 W · 52 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-66.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes11c529.56$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1787618.4%161 W · 715 L+9.5wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c11…ef93backed Yes12c500$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613522.9%8 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1dc…09c2backed Yes14c500$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7212914%18 W · 111 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes15c500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7546137.5%173 W · 288 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48a3…bfecbacked Yes5c450$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.55510.9%6 W · 49 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick9cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes7c427.64$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8532917%56 W · 273 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes11c421.22$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.8157420.9%120 W · 454 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes8c419.63$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.324916.7%33 W · 458 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes15c400.15$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5120723.7%49 W · 158 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x731b…83a2backed Yes9c333.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302927.6%8 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+38.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes12c308.96$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.017150.7%36 W · 35 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ced…2c7ebacked Yes11c304.9$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359614.6%14 W · 82 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes12c302$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4432110%32 W · 289 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe906…ae2bbacked Yes7c300$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21819.9%8 W · 73 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7ba…d31cbacked Yes7c300$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214610.9%5 W · 41 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe53d…146cbacked Yes13c285.52$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0411723.1%27 W · 90 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaee…8911backed Yes15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302917.2%5 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cf…c109backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-43.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes8c166.67$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1447510.5%50 W · 425 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ace…8ec9backed Yes15c165$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.091030%3 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick19cpaid+63%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x984f…ba69backed Yes10c136.11$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1315817.7%28 W · 130 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf61f…1cf3backed Yes10c115.47$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2712919.4%25 W · 104 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-25.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc28e…01bfbacked Yes14c105.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.812630.8%8 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+29.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf512…0985backed Yes12c100.2$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0212117.4%21 W · 100 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ff6…4e36backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1011721.4%25 W · 92 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a2c…b7f7backed Yes15c80.85$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.122025%5 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2559…460bbacked Yes15c70$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.526418.6%49 W · 215 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.