Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcd13f52c1957b9032bdb1d7c518615b7e086292a420e0614b10e182e47d1ca6

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 1, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $159,389
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $56,143

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $159,389 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x524d…4495backed Yes	0c	22,803$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.56	162	22.2%36 W · 126 L	+8.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8272…a0babacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	0c	5,555$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.11	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	9c	5,364$458 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$458.05	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	6c	4,066$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.12	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	2c	3,300$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.35	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	7c	2,945$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.96	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes	5c	2,330$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.23	215	21.9%47 W · 168 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes	1c	2,182$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.06	183	4.4%8 W · 175 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+235.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	5c	2,052$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.15	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	5c	2,037$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.63	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	1,855$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.58	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	5c	1,845$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.12	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	3c	1,644$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.37	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	6c	1,459$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.53	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes	5c	1,416$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.64	316	24.7%78 W · 238 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	2c	1,400$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.5	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb353…bd7fbacked Yes	5c	1,209$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.36	119	4.2%5 W · 114 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes	6c	1,161$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.01	122	27%33 W · 89 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cf3…ae6fbacked Yes	4c	1,007$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.24	111	6.3%7 W · 104 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+53.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes	6c	998$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.8	321	10%32 W · 289 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	4c	830$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.71	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	5c	777.01$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.24	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	3c	665$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.44	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes	4c	599.66$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.16	62	16.1%10 W · 52 L	-4.7wins	-0.08per pick	24cpaid	-66.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e1a…7690backed Yes	2c	522.02$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.37	124	21.8%27 W · 97 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x482f…53f7backed Yes	4c	461.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	81	2.5%2 W · 79 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	3cpaid	-60.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x53bd…5d30backed Yes	4c	423.23$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.94	106	6.6%7 W · 99 L	-4.9wins	-0.05per pick	11cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec1a…7d2ebacked Yes	3c	404.19$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.13	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes	3c	359.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.33	121	6.6%8 W · 113 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb5a…1537backed Yes	4c	299.9$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.67	159	18.9%30 W · 129 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf61f…1cf3backed Yes	5c	290.1$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.46	129	19.4%25 W · 104 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe53d…146cbacked Yes	7c	285.52$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.24	117	23.1%27 W · 90 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9df…d830backed Yes	5c	229.97$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.52	160	17.5%28 W · 132 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2559…460bbacked Yes	5c	210$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	264	18.6%49 W · 215 L	+8.7wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49a5…a67cbacked Yes	5c	200$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.85	76	10.5%8 W · 68 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event